week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Bryan Baker
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.08 is 1.64 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.204 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.08WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0–0
Baker is a sell-high — his 1.44 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %25.8%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~27.8% career norm
- Walk %9.0%—+0.0% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.204 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.08 is 1.64 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
157 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
157 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.272
lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —
244 / 200 TBF
xERA3.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.02vs his norm —
244 / 200 TBF
ERA1.44
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.66vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
62.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
244 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +0.0% ▲
244 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.204
lg avg .295 ▼−.091vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
157 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
244 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.9%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
244 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.3 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.3 mphvs his norm —
977 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.8%→26.7%signal0 K — K% 25.8% (signal) lifted to career ~27.8% → projected 26.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.08signal3.08 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.08 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.277 gives a 1.24 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard16 SV, 3.08 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.