MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryan Baker
week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Bryan Baker

TB·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High BABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.47 is 0.74 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.85
ROSK 24ERA 3.65WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 10–18

Baker is a sell-high — his ERA has luck all over it.

His ERA is 1.73, but the luck-free picture is different. His BABIP-against is .200, 95 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 87 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 2.47, nearly three-quarters of a run higher than the surface ERA shows. The contact suppression is real — his hard-hit rate allowed is 31.0% (league average is 40%), barrel rate is 5.7% (league is 8.0%), and both samples are past the stabilization threshold. He strikes out 29.3% of batters and has a 16.3% swinging-strike rate, far above league norms. The stuff is good, but the ERA is better than it should be. Regression is baked in. Sell high. 24 K, 3.65 ERA, 1.24 WHIP: trade window is open — sell into the inflated line before regression.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.3%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~27.8% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.200 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.47 is 0.74 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.0%
31.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.0%vs his norm —
87 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
believable since Jun 35.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
87 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.246
.246*
lg avg .315 ▼−.069vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 200 TBF
xERA2.47
2.47*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.63vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
140 / 200 TBF
ERA1.73
1.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
36.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.3%
norm29.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.3%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
140 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm −1.1% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.0% norm — expect it to rise.
140 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.200
.200*
lg avg .295 ▼−.095vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.3%
16.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.1%
36.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.6%vs his norm —
140 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.1 mph
97.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.1 mphvs his norm —
569 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.3%→28.4%signal24 K — K% 29.3% (signal) tempered to career ~27.8% → projected 28.4% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 2.47noise3.65 ERA — xERA 2.47 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)10-18 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard30 SV, 3.65 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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