week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Bryan Baker
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.08 is 1.47 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.203 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.95 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6ERA 3.08WHIP 1.23W 0–0SV 2–4
Baker is a sell-high — the ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.3%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~27.8% career norm
- Walk %9.1%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~9.0% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.203 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.08 is 1.47 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.8%vs his norm —
138 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
138 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.273
lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —
220 / 200 TBF
xERA3.08
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.02vs his norm —
220 / 200 TBF
ERA1.61
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.49vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
220 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.1%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
220 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.203
lg avg .295 ▼−.092vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
138 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
220 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
220 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.5 mphvs his norm —
884 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→27.5%signal6 K — K% 27.3% (signal) held to career ~27.8% → projected 27.5% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.08signal3.08 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.08 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.1% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.279 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-4 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard19 SV, 3.08 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.