Rest of Season Projection
BryanCategoryLucas
48K ←36
3.67ERA ←3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
1–2W →3–7
19–35SV ←13–24
Current Season
BryanCategoryLucas
29K ←18
2.22ERA ←6.33
1.07WHIP ←1.92
1W →3
16SV ←11
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryan Baker
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.83 is 0.70 above the ERA — regression coming
Lucas Erceg
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.42)
Bryan Baker: 48 K / 3.67 ERA. Lucas Erceg: 36 K / 3.71 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).