Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryLucas
55K ←36
3.70ERA3.71
1.24WHIP ←1.25
0–0W →3–7
17–31SV ←13–25
Current Season
AroldisCategoryLucas
25K ←18
0.48ERA ←6.33
0.86WHIP ←1.92
0W →3
12SV ←11
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Lucas Erceg
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.41)
Chapman leads 55 K to 36 K and 17 SV to 13 SV. The small ERA/WHIP edges are noise. Sell high on Chapman; hold Erceg.