Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryCade
55K →66
3.70ERA →3.60
1.24WHIP →1.22
0–0W →2–5
17–31SV →23–43
Current Season
AroldisCategoryCade
25K →42
0.48ERA ←2.60
0.86WHIP ←1.08
0W →2
12SV →20
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Cade Smith
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.23)
Smith outpaces Chapman in K (66 vs 55) and edges in ERA (3.60 vs 3.70). The sell-high verdict on Chapman and hold on Smith reflect this gap.