week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Cade Smith
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.36); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 34WHIP 1.23ERA 3.68W 1–2SV 11–21
Smith is a hold — stable stuff, but the bottom line is noisy.
ROS projects K 42 YTD → 34 ROS, WHIP 1.08 YTD → 1.23 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %34.8%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~35.6% career norm
- Walk %6.1%—+0.2% ▲vs his ~5.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.36)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed45.2%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.286
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
181 / 200 TBF
xERA3.36
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.74vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
181 / 200 TBF
ERA2.84
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.26vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
44.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.8%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
181 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm +0.2% ▲
181 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.333
lg avg .295 ▲+.038vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm —
181 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
181 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.9 mphvs his norm —
765 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.8%→35.2%signal34 K — K% 34.8% (signal) lifted to career ~35.6% → projected 35.2% over ~22 remaining IP.
xERA 3.36noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.36 (noise) blended 7% skill / 93% league 3.70 at 28 IP.
BB% 6.1% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.300 gives a 1.06 skill WHIP, blended 7%…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)11-21 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard36 SV, 3.68 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.