MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 19, 2026
Portrait of Cade Smith
Cade Smith
CLE · P
Change to
Portrait of Louis Varland
Louis Varland
TOR · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Cade Smith.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, wins, and saves. Louis Varland’s box score looks better right now, but the luck-stripped projection flips it.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV

Cade Smith wins 3 categories (K, W, SV); Louis Varland wins 2 (ERA, WHIP).

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Cade Smith
96.9
Louis Varland
98.5
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Cade Smith
17.0%
Louis Varland
15.0%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Cade Smith
34.8%
Louis Varland
35.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Cade Smith
33.5%
Louis Varland
35.7%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Cade Smith
45.2%
Louis Varland
36.4%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Cade Smith
10.4%
Louis Varland
2.7%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Cade Smith
.286
Louis Varland
.223
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Cade Smith
25.04
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.60
3.68
Louis Varland
25.04
lg xERA 4.10
now 0.29
3.53
WHIPlower is better
Cade Smith
.9501.31
now 1.08
1.23
Louis Varland
.9501.31
now 1.03
1.22

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Cade Smith
4048.40
now 42
34
Louis Varland
4048.40
now 42
26
Winshigher is better
Cade Smith
.5202.48
now 2
12
Louis Varland
.5202.48
now 2
12
Saveshigher is better
Cade Smith
.00027.80
now 20
1121
Louis Varland
.00027.80
now 8
48
If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · wait & seeCade Smith — hold.conf 0.50
Hold · wait & seeLouis Varland — hold.conf 0.50
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