MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Louis Varland
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Louis Varland

TOR·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.37, 1.73 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.37WHIP 1.15W 0–0SV 0–0

Varland is a buy — the stuff is real and the results have caught up.

His fastball now sits at 98.8 mph, well above the 94.0 league average, and it has been climbing across the sample. That velocity is doing real work: he strikes out 31.6% of batters against a league average of 22.0%, and his swinging-strike rate of 15.3% is far above the 11.0% league mark. The contact he allows backs it up. He gives up barrels on just 3.7% of batted balls versus 8.0% league, and his expected wOBA allowed is .239 — 76 points below the .315 league average — on 307 batters faced, past the 200 needed to trust it. His expected ERA is 2.37 against a 4.10 league average. He walks 7.5% of batters, slightly better than league, so the command does not undercut the stuff. The skill is real and the sample supports it. Buy. A 2.37 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with zero saves is an asset for ratios now, not a saves source — acquire and hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %31.6%—+6.9% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~6.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.37, 1.73 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.9%
36.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
187 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.7%
3.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
187 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.239
believable since Jul 28.239*
lg avg .315 ▼−.076vs his norm —
307 / 200 TBF
xERA2.37
2.37*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.73vs his norm —
307 / 200 TBF
ERA1.27
1.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.83vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
78 / 200 IP
Strikeout %31.6%
norm31.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.6%vs his norm +6.9% ▲
307 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
307 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
187 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.3%
15.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.3%vs his norm —
307 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
307 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.8 mph
98.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.8 mphvs his norm —
1236 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 31.6%→28.9%signal0 K — K% 31.6% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 28.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.37signal2.37 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.37 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.15 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard8 SV, 2.37 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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