week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Louis Varland
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.04); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 27WHIP 1.22ERA 3.53W 1–2SV 4–8
Varland is a hold — elite stuff but limited data keep it neutral.
ROS projects K 42 YTD → 27 ROS, WHIP 1.03 YTD → 1.22 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %35.3%—+10.6% ▲vs his ~24.7% career norm
- Walk %6.8%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~6.7% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.04)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
110 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed2.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.3%vs his norm —
110 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.223
lg avg .315 ▼−.092vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 200 TBF
xERA2.04
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.06vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
190 / 200 TBF
ERA1.10
lg avg 4.10 ▼−3.00vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
49 / 200 IP
Strikeout %35.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+13.3%vs his norm +10.6% ▲
190 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
190 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.312
lg avg .295 ▲+.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
110 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.0%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm —
190 / 60 TBF
Chase %35.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
190 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo98.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+4.5 mphvs his norm —
786 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 35.3%→29.9%signal27 K — K% 35.3% (signal) tempered to career ~24.7% → projected 29.9% over ~23 remaining…
xERA 2.04noise3.53 ERA — xERA 2.04 (noise) blended 10% skill / 90% league 3.70 at 31 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.07 skill WHIP, blended 10…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)4-8 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep14 SV, 3.53 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.