Rest of Season Projection
AndrésCategoryAroldis
58K ←55
3.71ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
3–7W ←0–0
11–20SV →17–31
Current Season
AndrésCategoryAroldis
35K ←25
4.76ERA →0.48
1.28WHIP →0.86
3W ←0
9SV →12
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrés Muñoz
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (4.21)
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Muñoz projects 58 K / 3.71 ERA vs Chapman 55 K / 3.70 ERA — surface stats nearly identical. The verdicts differ: hold vs sell-high.