Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryDavid
55K ←52
3.70ERA →3.67
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →1–2
17–31SV ←14–26
Current Season
AroldisCategoryDavid
25K →29
0.48ERA ←4.50
0.86WHIP ←1.58
0W →1
12SV12
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
David Bednar
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.83)
Aroldis Chapman: 55 K / 3.70 ERA. David Bednar: 52 K / 3.67 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).