MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of David Bednar
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

David Bednar

NYY·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.72, 1.38 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 6ERA 2.72WHIP 1.18W 0–0SV 2–3

Bednar is a buy — the strikeout skill is real and earned

His expected ERA is 2.72, a run and a half below the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the season rather than drifting up. That number is built on a strikeout rate of 28% — six points above league — and a swinging-strike rate of 16.8% against a league average of 11%. He is missing bats at a level that holds up. His fastball is at 96.1 mph and climbing, above the league average of 94, and the walk rate of 7.2% is below league, so he is not trading free passes for the punchouts. Batted balls allowed back it up: a .257 expected wOBA allowed and hard-hit contact well below league. The skill is earned. Buy. With 6 K and 2.72 ERA ROS, acquire now — an asset in standard leagues with 2-3 SV still coming.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.0%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~29.3% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—−1.3% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.72, 1.38 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
160 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.4%
4.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.6%vs his norm —
160 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.257
believable since Aug 5.257*
lg avg .315 ▼−.058vs his norm —
250 / 200 TBF
xERA2.72
2.72*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.38vs his norm —
250 / 200 TBF
ERA2.63
2.63*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.47vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
61.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.0%
norm28.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.0%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
250 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm −1.3% ▼
250 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
160 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.8%
16.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.8%vs his norm —
250 / 60 TBF
Chase %39.9%
39.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.4%vs his norm —
250 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1040 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.0%→28.6%signal6 K — K% 28.0% (signal) lifted to career ~29.3% → projected 28.6% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 2.72signal2.72 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.72 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.18 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.290 gives a 1.18 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard14 SV, 2.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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