week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
David Bednar
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell High luck-free xERA 2.88 is 0.41 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 2.88WHIP 1.19W 0–0SV 0–0
Bednar is a sell-high — his ERA is hiding behind a BABIP mirage.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.1%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~29.3% career norm
- Walk %7.1%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.270 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.88 is 0.41 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
182 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
182 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
280 / 200 TBF
xERA2.88
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —
280 / 200 TBF
ERA2.47
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.63vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
69.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.1%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
280 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
280 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.270
lg avg .295 ▼−.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
182 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
280 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.9%vs his norm —
280 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
1154 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.1%→28.0%signal0 K — K% 27.1% (signal) lifted to career ~29.3% → projected 28.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.88signal2.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.1% + contactsignal1.19 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.289 gives a 1.19 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard12 SV, 2.88 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.