week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
David Bednar
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (2.80); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 27ERA 3.67WHIP 1.24W 1–1SV 7–14
Bednar is a hold — league average, nothing to drive a move.
ROS projects K 29 YTD → 27 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %27.3%—−2.0% ▼vs his ~29.3% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (2.80)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.262
lg avg .315 ▼−.053vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 200 TBF
xERA2.80
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.30vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
165 / 200 TBF
ERA2.70
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
40 / 200 IP
Strikeout %27.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+5.3%vs his norm −2.0% ▼
165 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −1.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~8.5% norm — expect it to rise.
165 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
165 / 60 TBF
Chase %39.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+11.3%vs his norm —
165 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
679 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 27.3%→28.4%signal27 K — K% 27.3% (signal) lifted to career ~29.3% → projected 28.4% over ~21 remaining IP.
xERA 2.80noise3.67 ERA — xERA 2.80 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP, blended 4%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)7-14 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard23 SV, 3.67 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.