MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrés Muñoz
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Andrés Muñoz

SEA·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.71 sits 0.39 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.325 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.med 0.74
ROSK 32ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 6–11

Muñoz is a buy-low — elite stuff hidden by BABIP noise.

His ERA sits at 4.19, but the underlying skill is much better. His strikeout rate is 34.5%, well above league average, and he has faced enough batters for that to be stable. His fastball velocity has stepped up across the sample, now at 99.3 mph — over five ticks above league. The number inflating his ERA is his BABIP-against, which is .325, 30 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 81. That gap is luck, not a sign that hitters are squaring him up. His expected ERA is 3.71, nearly half a run lower than what the box score shows. The arm is elite, and the surface is lying. Buy low. Buy the dip: 32 K, 3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6-11 SV — a deep-league asset backed by elite skill.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %34.5%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~34.0% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.71 sits 0.39 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.325 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.0%
believable since May 2942.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm —
81 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.6%
8.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
81 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.300
.300*
lg avg .315 ▼−.015vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 200 TBF
xERA3.71
3.71*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.39vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148 / 200 TBF
ERA4.19
4.19*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.09vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
34.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %34.5%
norm34.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+12.5%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
148 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.1%
norm10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm +0.4% ▲Walk % is above his ~9.7% norm — expect it to fall.
148 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.325
.325*
lg avg .295 ▲+.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
81 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %18.9%
18.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.6%
36.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.1%vs his norm —
148 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.3 mph
99.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.3 mphvs his norm —
592 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 34.5%→34.2%signal32 K — K% 34.5% (signal) tempered to career ~34.0% → projected 34.2% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.71noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.71 (noise) blended 2% skill / 98% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 10.1% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP, blended 2…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)6-11 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep17 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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