MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrés Muñoz
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Andrés Muñoz

SEA·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.17, 0.93 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.88
ROSK 7ERA 3.17WHIP 1.12W 0–1SV 1–2

Munoz is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and stable.

His xERA is 3.17, just under a full run below the league average, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The reason it holds is his strikeout rate: 38.2%, far above the league average of 22%, and strikeout rate stabilizes quickly. He is getting there with swing-and-miss stuff — a 19.5% swinging-strike rate against an 11% league average. His expected wOBA allowed is .277, well below the .315 league mark, so the contact he does allow is weak. The fastball is averaging 99.7 mph and ticking up. Nothing in these numbers is propped up by luck; this is a pitcher getting hitters out the way he is built to. Buy. A 3.17 ERA with 7 K and 1-2 SV in the ROS line keeps him an asset — acquire now.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %38.2%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~34.0% career norm
  • Walk %9.2%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.17, 0.93 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.5%
believable since May 2942.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
113 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
8.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
113 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
.277*
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
217 / 200 TBF
xERA3.17
3.17*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.93vs his norm —
217 / 200 TBF
ERA4.13
4.13*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.03vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
52.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %38.2%
norm38.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+16.2%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
217 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
norm9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
217 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.311
.311*
lg avg .295 ▲+.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
113 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.5%
19.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.5%vs his norm —
217 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.3%vs his norm —
217 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.7 mph
99.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.7 mphvs his norm —
862 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 38.2%→36.2%signal7 K — K% 38.2% (signal) tempered to career ~34.0% → projected 36.2% over ~5 remaining IP.
xERA 3.17signal3.17 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.17 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.12 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.297 gives a 1.12 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterstandard11 SV, 3.17 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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