MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Andrés Muñoz
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Andrés Muñoz

SEA·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy Low luck-free xERA 3.27 sits 0.83 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.89
ROSK 0ERA 3.27WHIP 1.17W 0–0SV 0–0

Muñoz is a buy-low — the ERA is BABIP noise, the arm is real.

His ERA is 4.24, but the number beneath it says that is not who he is. His BABIP-against is .316 against a league average of .295, and that gap is luck — BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 126. Strip the noise out and his expected ERA is 3.27, .83 below league average, and it has been stepping down across the sample. He strikes out 37.1% of batters and gets a swing and miss on 19% of pitches, both far above league, and his fastball is sitting at 99.8 mph with the velocity climbing. His xwOBA allowed of .280 is well below league. The stuff is real; the surface is not. Buy low. Deep-league only: the 3.27 ERA / 1.17 WHIP hold, so buy the dip as a stash asset before the surface corrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %37.1%—+3.1% ▲vs his ~34.0% career norm
  • Walk %10.0%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~9.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.27 sits 0.83 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.316 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed43.7%
believable since May 2943.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
126 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.7%
8.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.7%vs his norm —
126 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.280
.280*
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
xERA3.27
3.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.83vs his norm —
240 / 200 TBF
ERA4.24
4.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.14vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
57.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %37.1%
norm37.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+15.1%vs his norm +3.1% ▲
240 / 70 TBF
Walk %10.0%
norm10.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.0%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
240 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.316
.316*
lg avg .295 ▲+.021vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
126 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %19.0%
19.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+8.0%vs his norm —
240 / 60 TBF
Chase %37.1%
37.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
240 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo99.8 mph
99.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+5.8 mphvs his norm —
953 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 37.1%→35.7%signal0 K — K% 37.1% (signal) tempered to career ~34.0% → projected 35.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.27signal3.27 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.27 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 10.0% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep9 SV, 3.27 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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