Rest of Season Projection
AroldisCategoryDevin
55K →59
3.70ERA3.70
1.24WHIP1.24
0–0W →4–8
17–31SV ←10–19
Current Season
AroldisCategoryDevin
25K →31
0.48ERA ←5.40
0.86WHIP ←1.55
0W →3
12SV ←8
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aroldis Chapman
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.231 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 2.46 above the ERA — regression coming
Devin Williams
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.03)
Aroldis Chapman: 55 K / 3.70 ERA. Devin Williams: 59 K / 3.70 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).