week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD
Devin Williams
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.22 sits 0.88 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0
Williams is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding the arm
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.3%—−9.8% ▼vs his ~38.1% career norm
- Walk %11.4%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~11.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.22 sits 0.88 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.377 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.3%vs his norm —
111 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
111 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.278
lg avg .315 ▼−.037vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
xERA3.22
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.88vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
184 / 200 TBF
ERA4.43
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.33vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.3%vs his norm −9.8% ▼
184 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
184 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.377
lg avg .295 ▲+.082vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
111 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.1%vs his norm —
184 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
759 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.3%→33.4%signal0 K — K% 28.3% (signal) lifted to career ~38.1% → projected 33.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.22noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.22 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 11.4% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 11% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.306 gives a 1.42 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)0-0 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep8 SV, 3.70 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.