MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 11, 2026
Engraved portrait of Devin Williams
week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Devin Williams

NYM·P
data as of September 11, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.30 sits 0.80 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.396 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 8WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 1–2

Williams is a buy-low — the ERA is hiding a real arm.

His ERA is 4.66, but the number keeping it ugly is his BABIP-against: .396, more than a hundred points above the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 106 — that gap is noise, not a verdict on his pitching. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 3.30, 0.80 below league. The skill underneath is stable and above average: he strikes out 28.7% of batters against a league rate of 22%, and limits hard contact to 29.2%, well under the 40% league mark, both past the sample where those numbers become trustworthy. The only flag is the fastball velo stepping down across the sample, but at 93.9 mph it still sits level with the league. The surface is noise; the arm is real. Buy low. At 8 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP, the buy-low window is a deep-league stash — 1-2 SV caps the upside.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %28.7%—−9.4% ▼vs his ~38.1% career norm
  • Walk %11.8%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~11.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.30 sits 0.80 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.396 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed29.2%
29.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−10.8%vs his norm —
106 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.7%
4.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.3%vs his norm —
106 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.282
.282*
lg avg .315 ▼−.033vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
178 / 200 TBF
xERA3.30
3.30*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.80vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
178 / 200 TBF
ERA4.66
4.66*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.56vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
38.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.7%
norm28.7%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm −9.4% ▼
178 / 70 TBF
Walk %11.8%
norm11.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.8%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
178 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.396
.396*
lg avg .295 ▲+.101vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
106 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.7%
17.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Chase %39.0%
39.0%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.5%vs his norm —
178 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
728 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.7%→33.7%signal8 K — K% 28.7% (signal) lifted to career ~38.1% → projected 33.7% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 3.30noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.30 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 11.8% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.308 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)1-2 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep10 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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