MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Devin Williams
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekHOLD

Devin Williams

NYM·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 3.48 sits 0.62 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.386 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 36ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 2–4SV 6–10

Williams is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.

His ERA sits at 4.68, but that number is being driven by bad luck. His BABIP-against is .386 — 91 points above league average — and BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable. He has 88. That gap is noise, not a red flag on his stuff. Strip out the luck and his expected ERA is 3.48, a full run lower. His strikeout rate is 29.6%, well above league, and his swinging-strike rate is 17.6% — elite chase-and-whiff numbers. Hard-hit and barrel rates allowed are both below league. The fastball velocity is stable and above league, though it has stepped down. The arm is fine; the surface is lying. Buy low. 36 K, 6-10 SV, 3.70 ERA — the skill carries the projection; buy the dip in deep leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.6%—−8.6% ▼vs his ~38.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.48 sits 0.62 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.386 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed30.7%
believable since Jun 1330.7%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−9.3%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.7%
5.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.3%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.291
.291*
lg avg .315 ▼−.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 TBF
xERA3.48
3.48*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.62vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 TBF
ERA4.68
4.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.58vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
32.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
norm29.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm −8.6% ▼
152 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.5%
norm12.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm +1.0% ▲Walk % is above his ~11.5% norm — expect it to fall.
152 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.386
.386*
lg avg .295 ▲+.091vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.6%
17.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
152 / 60 TBF
Chase %38.3%
38.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.8%vs his norm —
152 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.9 mph
93.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.1 mphvs his norm —
624 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.6%→34.5%signal36 K — K% 29.6% (signal) lifted to career ~38.1% → projected 34.5% over ~20 remaining IP.
xERA 3.48noise3.70 ERA — xERA 3.48 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 20 IP.
BB% 12.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)6-10 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep16 SV, 3.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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