TB

28.7% K rate with 3.55 xERA behind a 4.21 ERA

49.7% hard-hit at 20 — barrels already plus.

46% hard-hit and .343 xwOBA, yet .34 BABIP isn't flukey

48% hard-hit at a 14% strikeout rate — rare combo

96.6 mph heat, 29.8% Ks; .320 BABIP inflates the 4.79 ERA.

BABIP-against .204 versus .295 league — 1.44 ERA won't hold

4.34 ERA hides 5.19 xERA; .261 BABIP won't hold

2.44 ERA hides a 3.37 xERA; .251 BABIP won't hold.

15% strikeouts with a 3.10 ERA flatters him.

3.36 ERA hides a 4.3 xERA and .255 BABIP-against.

.223 BABIP against is noise; 2.94 xERA still says regression

.208 BABIP against — 87 points of luck under that 1.98 ERA.

BABIP-against .251 masks the gap; xERA already 3.06.

xwOBA .261 under a .317 wOBA — results outrunning 85.8 mph contact

17.8% strikeout rate won't sustain that .248 BABIP.

21.9% hard-hit and a .251 xwOBA — no thump at all.

Hard-hit rate 33% and barrels 4.3% — .264 xwOBA is real.

83.7 mph, zero barrels, 13.6% hard-hit — the wOBA is a mirage.

31% strikeout rate drags a .272 xwOBA to the bench

73rd-percentile contact, but 2.3% barrels and 85 mph exit velo

1.9% barrels with 87 mph exit velo — no power base.