week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Cole Sulser
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see BABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable, the 5.53 ERA overstates the damage; but luck-free xERA 4.86 is +0.76 vs league, the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.55 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 17WHIP 1.24ERA 3.74W 1–1SV 1–3
Sulser is a hold — limited data, no edge either way.
ROS projects K 18 YTD → 17 ROS, WHIP 1.54 YTD → 1.24 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.3%—−3.3% ▼vs his ~10.6% career norm
- Strikeout %24.3%—+0.1% ▲vs his ~24.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.345 elevated and unstable — the 5.53 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraNOISEbut luck-free xERA 4.86 is +0.76 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.3%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
121 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
121 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.339
lg avg .315 ▲+.024vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
xERA4.86
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.76vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
177 / 200 TBF
ERA5.53
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.43vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
40.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.3%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.3%vs his norm +0.1% ▲
177 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −3.3% ▼
177 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.345
lg avg .295 ▲+.050vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
121 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.5%vs his norm —
177 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
703 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.3%→24.2%signal17 K — K% 24.3% (signal) tempered to career ~24.2% → projected 24.2% over ~22 remaining…
xERA 4.86noise3.74 ERA — xERA 4.86 (noise) blended 3% skill / 97% league 3.70 at 23 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 3%…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)1-3 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.