134 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Jorge Mateo
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.319); BABIP 0.321 sits above league and is not yet stable, expect some of the average to regress; hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 2AVG .232R 36RBI 18SB 11
Mateo is a hold — league average, nothing to buy or sell.
ROS projects HR 4 YTD → 2 ROS, AVG .316 YTD → .232 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Barrel %9.4%—+4.7% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.319)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor
- babipNOISEBABIP 0.321 sits above league and is not yet stable — expect some of the average to regress
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.2 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %47.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm —
85 / 50 BBE
Barrel %9.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm +4.7% ▲
85 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.319
lg avg .315 ▲+.004vs his norm —xwOBA is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
134 / 160 PA
wOBA.289
lg avg .315 ▼−.026vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
134 / 200 PA
Strikeout %30.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
134 / 60 PA
Walk %6.0%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.5%vs his norm —
134 / 120 PA
BABIP.321
lg avg .295 ▲+.026vs his norm +.051 ▲BABIP is above his ~.270 norm — expect it to fall.
85 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
134 / 50 PA
Chase %41.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.2%vs his norm —
134 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 9.4%→6.1%signal2 HR — Barrel% 9.4% (signal) tempered to career ~4.7% → projected 6.1%.
BABIP 0.321→0.310 regressednoise.232 AVG — BABIP 0.321 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.308 (xBA 0.259) → 0.310.
on-base + lineup36 R — his run rate over ~138 projected PA.
slugging + lineup18 RBI — his RBI rate over ~138 projected PA.
run rate / role11 SB — his steal rate (7 in 37 G) over ~138 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.