MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Jorge Mateo
185 PA · week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Jorge Mateo

TB·SS
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 29% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.59
ROSHR 0AVG .209R 8RBI 4SB 3

Mateo is a sell — the contact is average and the strikeouts are climbing.

His expected wOBA is .297, .018 below the league average of .315, and he has 185 plate appearances — past the 160 where that number becomes reliable. The contact underneath it is ordinary: 88.2 mph average exit velocity and a 39.2% hard-hit rate, both just under league. Nothing in his balls in play says the line is being held down. The problem is the approach. He strikes out 29.2% of the time against a 22% league average, and that rate has been stepping up across the sample. He swings at 42.1% of pitches outside the zone and whiffs on 17.4%, both far above league. There is no bad-luck story waiting to break in his favor. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 8 R / 4 RBI / 3 SB / .209 AVG makes him a streaming-only drag — drop the rotational counting and move on.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %8.3%—+3.6% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.297 below league with no luck excuse
  • k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 29% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo88.2 mph
believable since May 2988.2 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.8 mphvs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %39.2%
39.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
120 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +3.6% ▲
120 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.297
.297*
lg avg .315 ▼−.018vs his norm —
185 / 160 PA
wOBA.265
.265*
lg avg .315 ▼−.050vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
185 / 200 PA
Strikeout %29.2%
29.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm —
185 / 60 PA
Walk %5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
185 / 120 PA
BABIP.278
norm.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm +.008 ▲BABIP is above his ~.270 norm — expect it to fall.
120 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.4%
17.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
185 / 50 PA
Chase %42.1%
42.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+13.6%vs his norm —
185 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.3%→6.1%signal0 HR — Barrel% 8.3% (signal) tempered to career ~4.7% → projected 6.1%.
BABIP 0.278→0.282 regressednoise.209 AVG — BABIP 0.278 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.283 (xBA 0.242) → 0.282.
on-base + lineup8 R — his run rate over ~31 projected PA.
slugging + lineup4 RBI — his RBI rate over ~31 projected PA.
run rate / role3 SB — his steal rate (7 in 37 G) over ~31 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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