Is Jorge Mateo a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Jorge Mateo's rest-of-season outlook?

31% strikeout rate drags a .272 xwOBA to the bench

221 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Jorge Mateo

TB·SS

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.272 below league with no luck excuse; strikeout rate 31% is stable and high, caps the floor; move on.med 0.64

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Mateo is a sell — below-league bat, nothing unlucky about it

His expected wOBA is .272, forty-three points below the league average of .315, and his 221 plate appearances are past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no correction waiting: his actual wOBA of .248 sits below his expected mark, so if anything the surface is slightly worse than the skill. His contact quality confirms it — 87.3 mph average exit velocity, a 35% hard-hit rate, both under league. The swing is where it breaks down: a 31.2% strikeout rate against 22% league, a 17.7% swinging-strike rate and a 44.2% chase rate, all with stable samples. Expected wOBA is stepping down across the sample and the strikeout rate is stepping up. That is not a bat about to turn around. Sell. A 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG line is pure drag — treat him as waiver-wire fodder and move on.

VS His Norm

Barrel %7.9%—+3.2% ▲vs his ~4.7% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.272 below league with no luck excuse
k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 31% is stable and high — caps the floor

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —

140 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —

140 / 50 BBE

Barrel %7.9%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +3.2% ▲

140 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.272

lg avg .315 ▼−.043vs his norm —

221 / 160 PA

wOBA.248

lg avg .315 ▼−.067vs his norm —

221 / 200 PA

Strikeout %31.2%

lg avg 22.0% ▲+9.2%vs his norm —

221 / 60 PA

Walk %5.0%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —

221 / 120 PA

BABIP.276

lg avg .295 ▼−.019vs his norm +.006 ▲BABIP is above his ~.270 norm — expect it to fall.

140 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %17.7%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.7%vs his norm —

221 / 50 PA

Chase %44.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+15.7%vs his norm —

221 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 7.9%→6.0%signal0 HR — Barrel% 7.9% (signal) tempered to career ~4.7% → projected 6.0%.

BABIP 0.276→0.256 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.276 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.252 (xBA 0.221) → 0.256.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (7 in 37 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons