MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Casey Legumina
week 31
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Casey Legumina

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.24); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.05WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Legumina is a hold — near-average, with nothing pulling either way.

His expected ERA is 4.24, which is close to the league average of 4.10, and his expected wOBA allowed matches that read: .316 against a .315 mark. Nothing underneath is moving. His hard-hit rate allowed and barrel rate allowed are both a tick better than league. His real skill, for now, sits right around the middle, and there is no luck story here. The one thing shifting is his xERA: it has been stepping up across the sample, which means the room between the surface and his actual run prevention could be moving. That's a reason to watch the next few starts, not a reason to move yet. Hold. 0 SV and 0 K keep this a droppable fringe arm — no reason to chase 4.05 ERA / 1.31 WHIP.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.2%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~9.7% career norm
  • Strikeout %18.0%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~20.6% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.24)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
38.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
223 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.3%
6.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.7%vs his norm —
223 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
believable since Aug 4.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
305 / 200 TBF
xERA4.24
4.24*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.14vs his norm —
305 / 200 TBF
ERA3.77
3.77*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.33vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
71.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %18.0%
norm18.0%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.0%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
305 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.2%
norm6.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.8%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
305 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
.308*
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
223 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
305 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.1%
32.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
305 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.0 mph
93.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.0 mphvs his norm —
1136 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 18.0%→19.0%signal0 K — K% 18.0% (signal) lifted to career ~20.6% → projected 19.0% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.24signal4.05 ERA — xERA 4.24 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 3.70 at 24 IP.
BB% 6.2% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.299 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop4.05 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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