week 25
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL
Garrett Cleavinger
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
new call
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.23 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.320 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.77 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 6WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–1SV 0–1
Cleavinger is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a useful arm.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Walk %12.2%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm
- Strikeout %29.8%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~30.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.23 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.320 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
103 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
103 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
181 / 200 TBF
xERA4.23
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.13vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
181 / 200 TBF
ERA4.79
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
41.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
181 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
181 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.320
lg avg .295 ▲+.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
181 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
181 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
734 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.8%→29.9%signal6 K — K% 29.8% (signal) held to career ~30.1% → projected 29.9% over ~4 remaining IP.
xERA 4.23noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.23 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-1 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.