MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Garrett Cleavinger
week 31
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekNO CALL

Garrett Cleavinger

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Buy Low fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — luck-free xERA 4.27 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; BABIP-against 0.320 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.76
ROSK 0WHIP 1.24ERA 3.70W 0–0SV 0–0

Cleavinger is a buy-low — his ERA is hiding a usable arm.

His fastball is sitting at 96.6 mph, well above the 94.0 league average, and it has been climbing across the sample — the arm is not the problem. The problem is his BABIP-against: .320 against a league average of .295. That gap is luck, not skill; BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable and he has 103, so the number bloating his ERA is not yet a fact about his pitching. He strikes out 29.8% of batters, well above the 22.0% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 13.5% backs it up. The walk rate at 12.2% is a real flaw, but the stuff is genuine and the surface line is being dragged down by bounces. Buy low. The ROS line of 0 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP confirms the surface drag — but deep-league only, a stash, not a must-add.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %12.2%—+2.0% ▲vs his ~10.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %29.8%—−0.3% ▼vs his ~30.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 4.27 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.320 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.8%
believable since Jun 2740.8%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.8%vs his norm —
103 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
103 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.317
.317*
lg avg .315 ▲+.002vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is above the ~.315 league average — expect it to fall.
181 / 200 TBF
xERA4.27
4.27*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.17vs his norm —xERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
181 / 200 TBF
ERA4.79
4.79*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.69vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
41.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.8%
norm29.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.8%vs his norm −0.3% ▼
181 / 70 TBF
Walk %12.2%
norm12.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm +2.0% ▲
181 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.320
.320*
lg avg .295 ▲+.025vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %13.5%
13.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
181 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
33.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
181 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
96.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
734 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.8%→29.9%signal0 K — K% 29.8% (signal) held to career ~30.1% → projected 29.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.27noise3.70 ERA — xERA 4.27 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 12 IP.
BB% 12.2% + contactsignal1.24 WHIP — a 12% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.39 skill WHIP, blended 0…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (setup)0-0 SV — role: setup, in the save mix only situationally.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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