MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
week 25
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Cam Booser

TB·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Sell High BABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.94 is 0.60 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.79
ROSK 3ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Booser is a sell-high — his ERA is built on BABIP luck.

His ERA is 2.34, but the number holding it down will not hold. His BABIP-against is .232, 63 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 87 — that gap is luck, not skill. Strip it out and his xERA is 2.94, six-tenths of a run above the ERA, and that gap points at the regression coming. The good news underneath is real: he strikes out 29.5% of batters, above the 22% league average, and his swinging-strike rate of 15.2% backs up the stuff. But the surface is flattering him. Sell high while the line still reads 2.34. ROS 3 K / 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP is deep-league streaming-only; sell into the window before regression drags that inflated line.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.5%—+5.2% ▲vs his ~24.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.232 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.94 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.4%
41.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.4%vs his norm —
87 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.9%
6.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
87 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.267
.267*
lg avg .315 ▼−.048vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 TBF
xERA2.94
2.94*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.16vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
132 / 200 TBF
ERA2.34
2.34*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.76vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
34.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.5%
norm29.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.5%vs his norm +5.2% ▲
132 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.5%
norm4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −6.2% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
132 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.232
.232*
lg avg .295 ▼−.063vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
87 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.9%
33.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.4%vs his norm —
132 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
95.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
499 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.5%→26.4%signal3 K — K% 29.5% (signal) tempered to career ~24.3% → projected 26.4% over ~6 remaining IP.
xERA 2.94noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.94 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 4.5% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.05 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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