MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH

Cam Booser

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High BABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; luck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.66 above the ERA, regression coming; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81
ROSK 0ERA 3.70WHIP 1.24W 0–0SV 0

Booser is a sell-high — his 1.98 ERA is BABIP luck, not skill.

His ERA sits at 1.98, and the number holding it there is his BABIP-against: .208 against a league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 101 — that gap is luck, not a signal about his pitching. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 2.64, two-thirds of a run higher than the scoreboard shows, and that number is not fully stable yet either on 152 batters. What is reliable is his stuff. He strikes out 29.6% of batters with a 15.9% swinging-strike rate, both well above league. That tells you the arm is good. It does not tell you a 1.98 ERA is where this lands. Limited data on this call, but the ERA is running ahead of the skill. Sell high. Sell into the 3.70 ERA / 1.24 WHIP line before it normalizes — a trade-window, deep-league sell.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.6%—+5.3% ▲vs his ~24.3% career norm

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.208 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 2.64 is 0.66 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.6%
37.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm —
101 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
101 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.252
.252*
lg avg .315 ▼−.063vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 TBF
xERA2.64
2.64*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.46vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
152 / 200 TBF
ERA1.98
1.98*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.12vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
41 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.6%
norm29.6%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.6%vs his norm +5.3% ▲
152 / 70 TBF
Walk %3.9%
norm3.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm −6.8% ▼Walk % is below his ~10.7% norm — expect it to rise.
152 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.208
.208*
lg avg .295 ▼−.087vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
101 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
15.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
152 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.2%
34.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.7%vs his norm —
152 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.7 mph
95.7 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.7 mphvs his norm —
573 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.6%→26.6%signal0 K — K% 29.6% (signal) tempered to career ~24.3% → projected 26.6% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.64noise3.70 ERA — xERA 2.64 (noise) blended 0% skill / 100% league 3.70 at 2 IP.
BB% 3.9% + contactnoise1.24 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.284 gives a 1.01 skill WHIP, blended 0%…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (middle)0 SV — role: middle, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep3.70 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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