Is Nick Fortes a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Nick Fortes's rest-of-season outlook?

73rd-percentile contact, but 2.3% barrels and 85 mph exit velo

323 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Nick Fortes

TB·C

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.273 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63

ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Fortes is a sell — weak contact and no luck to blame

His expected wOBA is .273, below the league average of .315, and the sample is past the point where that number becomes reliable. The bat is weak everywhere: 85.4 mph average exit velocity, a 35.4% hard-hit rate, and 2.3% barrels all sit well below league. His actual wOBA is .301, higher than his expected line rather than lower, so there is no bad luck dragging the numbers down. The plate discipline offers nothing to hang onto either — he walks just 3.7% of the time, and his 37.3% chase rate against a 28.5% league average is the profile of a hitter who is being beaten, not a hitter waiting out a slump. The xwOBA trend is stepping down as the sample builds. This is the level he's at. Sell. 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG is a drop — waiver-wire filler, streaming-only, not a roster hold.

VS His Norm

Barrel %2.3%—−0.7% ▼vs his ~3.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.273 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo85.4 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.6 mphvs his norm —

258 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %35.4%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —

258 / 50 BBE

Barrel %2.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm −0.7% ▼

258 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.273

lg avg .315 ▼−.042vs his norm —

323 / 160 PA

wOBA.301

lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —

323 / 200 PA

Strikeout %13.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−8.1%vs his norm —

323 / 60 PA

Walk %3.7%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —

323 / 120 PA

BABIP.286

lg avg .295 ▼−.009vs his norm +.034 ▲BABIP is above his ~.252 norm — expect it to fall.

258 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.5%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm —

323 / 50 PA

Chase %37.3%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+8.8%vs his norm —

323 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 2.3%→2.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.3% (signal) lifted to career ~3.0% → projected 2.6%.

BABIP 0.286→0.274 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.286 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.239) → 0.274.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 47 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons