Is Nick Fortes a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Nick Fortes's rest-of-season outlook?

xwOBA .270 with nearly zero barrels (1.6%).

222 PA · week 17

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Nick Fortes

TB·C

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17

flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64

ROSAVG .240HR 1R 12RBI 15SB 0

Fortes is a sell — subpar skill with no luck excuse.

Fortes's expected wOBA is .270, 45 points below league average, and he has enough plate appearances for that number to be reliable. His actual wOBA is .286, nearly tracking the expected mark, so there is no bad-luck story pulling his line down. His contact quality metrics are all below league: 86.0 mph exit velocity, 37.0% hard-hit rate, and a barrel rate of 1.6% against an 8.0% league average. He does post a low strikeout rate of 12.2%, but that is outweighed by a low walk rate of 2.7% and a chase rate of 38.9% — well above league. The xwOBA has been stepping down across the sample, suggesting no hidden upside. This is the level he is at. Sell. 1 HR / 12 R / 15 RBI / 0 SB / .240 AVG makes him a drop-tier, streaming-only catcher in standard leagues.

VS His Norm

Barrel %1.6%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~3.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.270 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo86.0 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.0 mphvs his norm —

182 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %37.0%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.0%vs his norm —

182 / 50 BBE

Barrel %1.6%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.4%vs his norm −1.4% ▼

182 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.270

lg avg .315 ▼−.045vs his norm —

222 / 160 PA

wOBA.286

lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —

222 / 200 PA

Strikeout %12.2%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.8%vs his norm —

222 / 60 PA

Walk %2.7%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.8%vs his norm —

222 / 120 PA

BABIP.287

lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm +.035 ▲BABIP is above his ~.252 norm — expect it to fall.

182 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %8.2%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−2.8%vs his norm —

222 / 50 PA

Chase %38.9%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+10.4%vs his norm —

222 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 1.6%→2.4%signal1 HR — Barrel% 1.6% (signal) lifted to career ~3.0% → projected 2.4%.

BABIP 0.287→0.273 regressednoise.240 AVG — BABIP 0.287 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.269 (xBA 0.239) → 0.273.

on-base + lineup12 R — his run rate over ~162 projected PA.

slugging + lineup15 RBI — his RBI rate over ~162 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 47 G) over ~162 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons