Is Nick Fortes a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Nick Fortes's rest-of-season outlook?

Contact hitter with zero power: 85 mph, 2% barrels.

294 PA · week 25

this weekSELL

last weekHOLD

Nick Fortes

TB·C

data as of September 10, 2026·week 25

flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026

Sell stable xwOBA 0.274 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.63

ROSAVG .245HR 0R 3RBI 3SB 0

Fortes is a sell — the bat is below league and trending down.

His expected wOBA is .274, forty-one points below the league average of .315, and at 294 plate appearances that number is past the point where it becomes reliable. His contact quality backs it up: 85.1 mph average exit velocity and a 2.1% barrel rate, both well short of league, and the batted-ball sample is large enough to trust. His xwOBA has been stepping down across the season, so this is not a cold stretch waiting to turn. His walk rate of 3.1% is less than half the league average, so he is not creating value by getting on base, and he chases 38% of pitches, nearly ten points above league. The low strikeout rate is the one thing in his favor, but it comes with weak contact, not a bat that will carry a fantasy lineup. Sell. 0 HR / 3 R / 3 RBI / 0 SB / .245 AVG is waiver-level — a drop, deep-league streaming-only at catcher.

VS His Norm

Barrel %2.1%—−0.9% ▼vs his ~3.0% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.274 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo85.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−3.9 mphvs his norm —

239 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %34.5%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —

239 / 50 BBE

Barrel %2.1%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−5.9%vs his norm −0.9% ▼

239 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.274

lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —

294 / 160 PA

wOBA.298

lg avg .315 ▼−.017vs his norm —

294 / 200 PA

Strikeout %12.9%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−9.1%vs his norm —

294 / 60 PA

Walk %3.1%

lg avg 8.5% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —

294 / 120 PA

BABIP.294

lg avg .295 ▼−.001vs his norm +.042 ▲BABIP is above his ~.252 norm — expect it to fall.

239 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %9.1%

lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —

294 / 50 PA

Chase %38.0%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+9.5%vs his norm —

294 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 2.1%→2.5%signal0 HR — Barrel% 2.1% (signal) lifted to career ~3.0% → projected 2.5%.

BABIP 0.294→0.280 regressednoise.245 AVG — BABIP 0.294 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.275 (xBA 0.244) → 0.280.

on-base + lineup3 R — his run rate over ~36 projected PA.

slugging + lineup3 RBI — his RBI rate over ~36 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 47 G) over ~36 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons