Is Cedric Mullins a buy or sell for fantasy baseball?

Sell — metrics are consistently below average with signal behind the decline.

What is Cedric Mullins's rest-of-season outlook?

Hard-hit rate 33% and barrels 4.3% — .264 xwOBA is real.

502 PA · week 31

this weekSELL

last weekSELL

Cedric Mullins

TB·CF

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31

Sell stable xwOBA 0.264 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.65

ROSHR 0AVG .000R 0RBI 0SB 0

Mullins is a sell — the contact quality is below league and falling

The expected wOBA sits at .264, a full 51 points under the league average of .315, and his 502 plate appearances are well past the point where that number becomes reliable. There is no bad luck pulling the line down: his actual wOBA of .281 tracks close to his expected .264, and his walk rate of 8.6% is right at league average. The contact quality backs the skill number. He averages 88.1 mph off the bat against a 89.0 league average, with a 33.1% hard-hit rate and 4.3% barrels — both well below league. And the expected wOBA has been stepping down across his sample, not stabilizing higher. That is not a cold streak to wait out; that is a player whose batted-ball quality is not there. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG — a waiver-wire drop, not a hold through the fade.

VS His Norm

Barrel %4.3%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~5.8% career norm

Drivers

xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.264 below league with no luck excuse

metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?

Avg Exit Velo88.1 mph

lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−0.9 mphvs his norm —

352 / 50 BBE

Hard-Hit %33.1%

lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.9%vs his norm —

352 / 50 BBE

Barrel %4.3%

lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.7%vs his norm −1.5% ▼

352 / 60 BBE

xwOBA.264

lg avg .315 ▼−.051vs his norm —

502 / 160 PA

wOBA.281

lg avg .315 ▼−.034vs his norm —

502 / 200 PA

Strikeout %19.3%

lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.7%vs his norm —

502 / 60 PA

Walk %8.6%

lg avg 8.5% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —

502 / 120 PA

BABIP.227

lg avg .295 ▼−.068vs his norm −.032 ▼BABIP is below his ~.259 norm — expect it to rise.

352 / 800 BIP

Swinging-Strike %11.0%

lg avg 11.0% ▲+0.0%vs his norm —

502 / 50 PA

Chase %31.2%

lg avg 28.5% ▲+2.7%vs his norm —

502 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf

Barrel% 4.3%→4.9%signal0 HR — Barrel% 4.3% (signal) lifted to career ~5.8% → projected 4.9%.

BABIP 0.227→0.229 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.227 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.230 (xBA 0.192) → 0.229.

on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.

slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.

run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (10 in 51 G) over ~0 projected PA.

rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

VS His Norm

Drivers

5×5 ROS Outlook

Comparisons