MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Steven Matz
week 17
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Steven Matz

TB·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from HOLD
Sell stable xERA 5.81 +1.71 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.90
ROSK 45ERA 5.21WHIP 1.37W 3–7SV 0

Matz is a sell — skill well below league and no luck cover.

His xERA is 5.81, a full 1.71 runs above the league average of 4.10, and the sample at 230 batters faced is past the stabilization point. That number is reliable and bad. His strikeout rate at 17.8% is below league average, he walks batters at a league-average 8.3%, and his swinging-strike and chase rates are both slightly below league — there is no elite-stuff story hiding under the surface. The hard-hit rate allowed is actually below league (36.1% vs 40.0%), but the barrel rate allowed is 13.0% versus an 8.0% league average, meaning when batters make contact they hit it hard with authority. His xwOBA allowed is .366, 51 points above league, and his xERA has been stepping up across the sample — it is not plateauing, it is getting worse. There is no bad-luck BABIP excuse here because he is not getting unlucky. The baseline is low and getting lower. Sell. 45 K with a 5.21 ERA and 1.37 WHIP make this a streaming-only arm even in deep leagues.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.8%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~21.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.3%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.81 +1.71 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.1%
36.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.9%vs his norm —
169 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed13.0%
13.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
169 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.366
.366*
lg avg .315 ▲+.051vs his norm —
230 / 200 TBF
xERA5.81
5.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.71vs his norm —
230 / 200 TBF
ERA6.28
6.28*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+2.18vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
53 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
norm17.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
230 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.3%
norm8.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
230 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.278
.278*
lg avg .295 ▼−.017vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.3%
10.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
230 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.5%
27.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
230 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.3 mph
93.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.7 mphvs his norm —
918 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→19.7%signal45 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.8% → projected 19.7% over ~52 remaining IP.
xERA 5.81signal5.21 ERA — xERA 5.81 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 44 IP.
BB% 8.3% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role3-7 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop45 K ROS, 5.21 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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