week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekHOLD
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Steven Matz
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Matz is a sell-high — ERA is a BABIP mirage.
His ERA sits at 4.67, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The key is his BABIP-against: .250, 45 points below the .295 league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to stabilize; he has 131. That gap is luck, not craft. Strip it out and his expected ERA is 5.03 — 0.36 higher, pointing to regression. His strikeout rate (19.0%) is below league average and his walk rate (9.2%) is above, both stable but unflattering. He is also allowing 10.7% barrels, above league. The ERA is the best thing on his line, but it is built on noise. Nobody knows who Matz is — limited data: this call rests on the first stable sample of the season. Sell high.
Sell High
med0.69
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.250 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 5.03 is 0.36 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed36.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−3.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL131 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.7%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL131 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.350
lg avg .315 ▲+.035too early to trust
NOISE184 / 200 TBF
xERA5.03
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.93too early to trust
NOISE184 / 200 TBF
ERA4.67
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57too early to trust
NOISE44.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL184 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL184 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.250
lg avg .295 ▼−.045too early to trust
NOISE131 / 800 BIP