MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Steven Matz
week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Steven Matz

TB·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.83
ROSK 0ERA 4.72WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Matz is a sell — the skill is below league and nothing hides it

His expected ERA is 5.05, a full run above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. There is no luck story to explain it away: his walk rate of 7.3% is right around league average, so the contact damage is the skill, not a BABIP fluke. He strikes out just 17.8% of batters, well under the 22.0% league mark, and his swinging-strike rate of 10.0% sits below league too — the swings and misses aren't there to bail him out. Worse, the expected ERA has been climbing across the sample rather than settling down. He's allowing a .342 expected wOBA and 10.6% barrels, both worse than league, and that is who he is right now. The market can keep paying for the name. Sell. A 0 K / 4.72 ERA / 1.31 WHIP line makes him waiver fodder — fade the name and take the drop.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %17.8%—−4.0% ▼vs his ~21.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.3%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.05 +0.95 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.4%
35.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.6%vs his norm —
254 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
254 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.342
believable since Jun 8.342*
lg avg .315 ▲+.027vs his norm —
342 / 200 TBF
xERA5.05
5.05*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.95vs his norm —
342 / 200 TBF
ERA5.49
5.49*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.39vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
80.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.8%
norm17.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.2%vs his norm −4.0% ▼
342 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
342 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.248
.248*
lg avg .295 ▼−.047vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
254 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
342 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.1%
29.1%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.6%vs his norm —
342 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.6 mph
93.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.4 mphvs his norm —
1345 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.8%→19.3%signal0 K — K% 17.8% (signal) lifted to career ~21.8% → projected 19.3% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 5.05signal4.72 ERA — xERA 5.05 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 44 IP.
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.72 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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