week 25
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Steven Matz
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 5.15 +1.05 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.high 0.86 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 10ERA 4.78WHIP 1.33W 1–1SV 0
Matz is a sell — the contact he allows says below league.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %17.2%—−4.6% ▼vs his ~21.8% career norm
- Walk %7.4%—+0.5% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 5.15 +1.05 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.6%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.4%vs his norm —
231 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
231 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.346
lg avg .315 ▲+.031vs his norm —
309 / 200 TBF
xERA5.15
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.05vs his norm —
309 / 200 TBF
ERA5.88
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.78vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %17.2%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm −4.6% ▼
309 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm +0.5% ▲
309 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.255
lg avg .295 ▼−.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
231 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.9%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.1%vs his norm —
309 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.2%vs his norm —
309 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo93.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−0.5 mphvs his norm —
1221 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 17.2%→19.0%signal10 K — K% 17.2% (signal) lifted to career ~21.8% → projected 19.0% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 5.15signal4.78 ERA — xERA 5.15 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 44 IP.
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.33 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.283 gives a 1.35 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop10 K ROS, 4.78 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.