MLB Daily DeltaWeek 14 · July 1, 2026
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Portrait of Tyler Mahle
Tyler Mahle
SF · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 22. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Steven Matz wins 2 (WHIP, W); Tyler Mahle wins 2 (K, ERA); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Steven Matz
93.3
Tyler Mahle
92.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Steven Matz
10.3%
Tyler Mahle
9.1%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Steven Matz
17.8%
Tyler Mahle
22.3%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Steven Matz
27.5%
Tyler Mahle
28.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Steven Matz
36.1%
Tyler Mahle
36.1%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Steven Matz
13.0%
Tyler Mahle
8.2%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Steven Matz
.366
Tyler Mahle
.322
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Steven Matz
3.516.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
5.18
Tyler Mahle
3.516.76
lg xERA 4.10
now 6.04
4.23
WHIPlower is better
Steven Matz
1.121.66
now 1.24
1.37
Tyler Mahle
1.121.66
now 1.54
1.40

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Steven Matz
4089.60
now 35
58
Tyler Mahle
4089.60
now 57
74
Winshigher is better
Steven Matz
.00010.80
now 4
48
Tyler Mahle
.00010.80
now 1
12

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.90
Buy LowTyler Mahle — buy low. The dip is a window to acquire.conf 0.90
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