week 12
this weekBUY-LOW
last week—
Tyler Mahle
data as of June 13, 2026·week 12
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league, a real arm the ERA is hiding — BABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 94ERA 4.05WHIP 1.38W 1–2SV 0
Mahle is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %22.9%—−1.1% ▼vs his ~24.0% career norm
- Walk %9.6%—+1.1% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.05 sits 0.05 below league — a real arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.335 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
168 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
168 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
249 / 200 TBF
xERA4.05
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.05vs his norm —
249 / 200 TBF
ERA6.04
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.94vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
56.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm −1.1% ▼
249 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm +1.1% ▲
249 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.335
lg avg .295 ▲+.040vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
168 / 800 BIP
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.9%→23.4%signal94 K — K% 22.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.0% → projected 23.4% over ~91 remaining IP.
xERA 4.05signal4.05 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 4.05 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.6% + contactsignal1.38 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 6…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep94 K ROS, 4.05 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.