MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Engraved portrait of Tyler Mahle
week 27
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Tyler Mahle

ATL·P
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.95); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.95WHIP 1.30W 0–0SV 0

Mahle is a hold — league-average skill and a steady sample

His expected ERA is 3.95 through 614 batters faced, essentially the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough hitters for that number to be reliable. What backs it up is a contact-suppression profile that sits right at the middle: a .306 xwOBA allowed against a league mark of .315, hard-hit rate at 37.1% versus 40.0%, and barrel rate at 6.8% against 8.0%. His strikeout rate (22.3%) and walk rate (7.5%) are both within a hair of league. Nothing here points hard enough to buy or sell, and the xERA has been stepping down as the sample grew. He is what the numbers say he is. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %22.3%—−1.7% ▼vs his ~24.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.5%—−1.0% ▼vs his ~8.5% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.1%
37.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm —
428 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
428 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.306
.306*
lg avg .315 ▼−.009vs his norm —
614 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —
614 / 200 TBF
ERA3.99
3.99*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.11vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
149 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.3%
norm22.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm −1.7% ▼
614 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
norm7.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%vs his norm −1.0% ▼
614 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
.291*
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
428 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
614 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.9%
28.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
614 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.8 mph
92.8 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.2 mphvs his norm —
2402 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 22.3%→22.7%signal0 K — K% 22.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.0% → projected 22.7% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95signal3.95 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.95 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.5% + contactsignal1.30 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.30 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 3.95 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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