week 18
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW
Tyler Mahle
data as of July 28, 2026·week 18
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.24 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 49ERA 4.19WHIP 1.39W 1–1SV 0
Mahle is a buy-low — his ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
ERA ugly, but the skill it regresses to is league-or-better and the BABIP-against is unsustainable. Buy low.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %21.4%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~24.0% career norm
- Walk %9.2%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~8.5% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.24 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.319 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.1%vs his norm —
248 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm —
248 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.318
lg avg .315 ▲+.003vs his norm —
359 / 200 TBF
xERA4.24
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.14vs his norm —
359 / 200 TBF
ERA5.31
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.21vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
83 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
359 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.2%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
359 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.319
lg avg .295 ▲+.024vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
248 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %9.7%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm —
359 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.5%vs his norm —
359 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
1391 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.4%→22.3%signal49 K — K% 21.4% (signal) lifted to career ~24.0% → projected 22.3% over ~46 remaining IP.
xERA 4.24signal4.19 ERA — xERA 4.24 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 57 IP.
BB% 9.2% + contactsignal1.39 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.302 gives a 1.43 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop49 K ROS, 4.19 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.