MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
286 PA · week 31
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD

Ben Williamson

data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Sell stable xwOBA 0.286 below league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.61
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0

Williamson is a sell — the contact quality isn't there.

He is averaging 87.3 mph off the bat, below the 89.0 mph league average, and his hard-hit rate of 33.2% trails the league's 40.0% by a wide margin. Those are the numbers that drive his expected wOBA, which sits at .286 against a league average of .315, and the trend is stepping down across the sample rather than climbing. His actual wOBA is .280, right in line with the expected figure, so there is no unlucky stretch to point to — the line is an honest read of the bat. A 1.9% barrel rate against a league average of 8.0% means he is rarely squaring the ball up. The strikeout and walk rates are fine, even tidy, but they don't produce runs. There is no floor to build on and no bounce coming. The bat is what it is. Sell. Projected 0 HR / 0 R / 0 RBI / 0 SB / .000 AVG makes him waiver fodder — fade it, streaming-only.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %1.9%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~3.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALstable xwOBA 0.286 below league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo87.3 mph
87.3 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %33.2%
33.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.8%vs his norm —
208 / 50 BBE
Barrel %1.9%
norm1.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−6.1%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.286
believable since Jun 14.286*
lg avg .315 ▼−.029vs his norm —
286 / 160 PA
wOBA.280
.280*
lg avg .315 ▼−.035vs his norm —
286 / 200 PA
Strikeout %18.9%
18.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−3.1%vs his norm —
286 / 60 PA
Walk %7.7%
7.7%*
lg avg 8.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
286 / 120 PA
BABIP.289
norm.289*
lg avg .295 ▼−.006vs his norm −.036 ▼BABIP is below his ~.326 norm — expect it to rise.
208 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %7.5%
7.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
286 / 50 PA
Chase %31.8%
31.8%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
286 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 1.9%→2.6%signal0 HR — Barrel% 1.9% (signal) lifted to career ~3.3% → projected 2.6%.
BABIP 0.289→0.304 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.289 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.309 (xBA 0.246) → 0.304.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (5 in 43 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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