MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Drew Rasmussen
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Drew Rasmussen

TB·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.10, 1.00 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.90
ROSK 11ERA 3.10WHIP 1.04W 1–1SV 0

Rasmussen is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and the sample proves it.

He is missing bats at a rate the league cannot match, and the sample has cleared the threshold: 26.1% strikeouts against a 22% league average, 598 batters faced, no luck involved. His expected wOBA allowed is .274, 41 points better than league average, and the contact he allows backs it up — 34.3% hard-hit rate against a 40% league average, 5.9% barrels against 8%. His fastball is sitting at 95.9 mph, a tick above league, and it has been stepping up across the season while his expected ERA has stepped down to 3.10. There is no inflated BABIP-against propping this up. The strikeout rate and walk rate are both stable, and the skill is real. Buy. 11 K and a 3.10 ERA rest of season make him an asset worth adding now — buy before the strikeouts dry up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %26.1%—+2.8% ▲vs his ~23.3% career norm
  • Walk %4.5%—−1.8% ▼vs his ~6.3% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.10, 1.00 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.3%
34.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.7%vs his norm —
408 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
5.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
408 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.274
.274*
lg avg .315 ▼−.041vs his norm —
598 / 200 TBF
xERA3.10
3.10*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.00vs his norm —
598 / 200 TBF
ERA2.88
2.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
153.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.1%
norm26.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.1%vs his norm +2.8% ▲
598 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.5%
norm4.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm −1.8% ▼
598 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.249
.249*
lg avg .295 ▼−.046vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
408 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
598 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.7%
33.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.2%vs his norm —
598 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.9 mph
95.9 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.9 mphvs his norm —
2378 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.1%→25.4%signal11 K — K% 26.1% (signal) tempered to career ~23.3% → projected 25.4% over ~13 remaining…
xERA 3.10signal3.10 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.10 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.5% + contactsignal1.04 WHIP — a 4% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.272 gives a 1.04 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard11 K ROS, 3.10 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups