week 31
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Drew Rasmussen
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.06 is 0.39 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.81 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 3.06WHIP 1.05W 0–0SV 0
Rasmussen is a sell-high — his ERA is running on BABIP luck.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %26.0%—+2.7% ▲vs his ~23.3% career norm
- Walk %4.8%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~6.3% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.251 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.06 is 0.39 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed33.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−6.2%vs his norm —
456 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm —
456 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
669 / 200 TBF
xERA3.06
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.04vs his norm —
669 / 200 TBF
ERA2.67
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.43vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
172 / 200 IP
Strikeout %26.0%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+4.0%vs his norm +2.7% ▲
669 / 70 TBF
Walk %4.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.2%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
669 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.251
lg avg .295 ▼−.044vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
456 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
669 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.1%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.6%vs his norm —
669 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.8 mphvs his norm —
2660 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 26.0%→25.4%signal0 K — K% 26.0% (signal) tempered to career ~23.3% → projected 25.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.06signal3.06 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.06 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 4.8% + contactsignal1.05 WHIP — a 5% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.270 gives a 1.05 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 3.06 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.