Rest of Season Projection
ChaseCategoryDrew
130K ←99
2.89ERA ←3.30
1.17WHIP →1.16
8–17W ←5–10
0SV0
Current Season
ChaseCategoryDrew
72K ←55
1.96ERA ←3.36
0.96WHIP ←1.02
7W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Chase Burns
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
Drew Rasmussen
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.30, 0.80 below league — production is earned
Chase Burns: 130 K / 2.89 ERA. Drew Rasmussen: 99 K / 3.30 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).