week 17
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
Chase Burns
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Sell High luck-free xERA 3.14 is 0.60 above the ERA, regression coming — BABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable, flattering the ERA; sell into the hype before regression.high 0.89 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 68ERA 3.14WHIP 1.23W 4–9SV 0
Burns is a sell-high — BABIP luck is inflating the ERA.
Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %28.6%—−3.2% ▼vs his ~31.8% career norm
- Walk %9.0%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.265 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.14 is 0.60 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
257 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
257 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.277
lg avg .315 ▼−.038vs his norm —
413 / 200 TBF
xERA3.14
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.96vs his norm —
413 / 200 TBF
ERA2.54
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.56vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
102.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm −3.2% ▼
413 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.0%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.0%vs his norm +0.8% ▲
413 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.265
lg avg .295 ▼−.030vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
257 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
413 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.5%vs his norm —
413 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.8 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.8 mphvs his norm —
1677 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.6%→29.6%signal68 K — K% 28.6% (signal) lifted to career ~31.8% → projected 29.6% over ~59 remaining IP.
xERA 3.14signal3.14 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.14 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 9.0% + contactsignal1.23 WHIP — a 9% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.23 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard68 K ROS, 3.14 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.