MLB Daily DeltaWeek 10 · June 3, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chase Burns
week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Chase Burns

CIN·P
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10

Burns is a sell-high — BABIP is propping up the ERA.

Surface ERA flattered by an unsustainably low BABIP-against; xERA says regression. Sell high.

Sell High
high0.95

Drivers

  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.230 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 2.89 is 0.93 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.8%
37.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL156 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.3%
8.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL156 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
.271
lg avg .315 ▼−.044trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 200 TBF
xERA2.89
2.89
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.21trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 200 TBF
ERA1.96
1.96
lg avg 4.10 ▼−2.14too early to trust
NOISE64.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.9%
28.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
8.0%
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL249 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.230
.230
lg avg .295 ▼−.065too early to trust
NOISE156 / 800 BIP