MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Chase Burns
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Chase Burns

CIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from SELL-HIGH on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.89
ROSK 15ERA 3.15WHIP 1.22W 1–2SV 0

Burns is a buy — his expected ERA is nearly a run under league.

His expected ERA is 3.15, a full run under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 602 batters — well past the 200 mark where that number becomes reliable. Nothing on his line looks like luck. His expected wOBA allowed of .276 is 39 points below the league average of .315, and he strikes out 29.2% of the batters he faces against a league rate of 22.0%. The swing-and-miss is there too: a 15.6% swinging-strike rate against a league average of 11.0%. He is averaging 97.6 mph on his fastball, nearly four mph above league, and that velocity has been climbing through the sample while his expected ERA steps down. The skill is real and the sample is long enough to trust it. Buy. 15 K and a 3.15 ERA over the ROS make him an asset — acquire before the strikeout rate pushes his price up.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.2%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~31.8% career norm
  • Walk %8.5%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~8.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.15, 0.95 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.1%
38.1%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.9%vs his norm —
373 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.8%
7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
373 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.276
.276*
lg avg .315 ▼−.039vs his norm —
602 / 200 TBF
xERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —
602 / 200 TBF
ERA2.73
2.73*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.37vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.2%
norm29.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.2%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
602 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
norm8.5%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
602 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.288
.288*
lg avg .295 ▼−.007vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
373 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.6%
15.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
602 / 60 TBF
Chase %34.9%
34.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+6.4%vs his norm —
602 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
97.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
2446 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.2%→29.9%signal15 K — K% 29.2% (signal) lifted to career ~31.8% → projected 29.9% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.15signal3.15 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.15 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.22 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.292 gives a 1.22 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard15 K ROS, 3.15 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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