MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Portrait of Chase Burns
Chase Burns
CIN · P
Change to
Portrait of Gavin Williams
Gavin Williams
CLE · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 11, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Chase Burns wins 1 (ERA); Gavin Williams wins 1 (WHIP); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Chase Burns
97.6
Gavin Williams
97.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Chase Burns
15.6%
Gavin Williams
15.9%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Chase Burns
29.2%
Gavin Williams
33.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Chase Burns
34.9%
Gavin Williams
33.4%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Chase Burns
38.1%
Gavin Williams
47.4%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Chase Burns
7.8%
Gavin Williams
11.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Chase Burns
.276
Gavin Williams
.301
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Chase Burns
24.51
lg xERA 4.10
now 1.96
3.15
Gavin Williams
24.51
lg xERA 4.10
now 3.07
3.78
WHIPlower is better
Chase Burns
.9001.32
now 0.96
1.22
Gavin Williams
.9001.32
now 1.09
1.12

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Chase Burns
40117.20
now 72
15
Gavin Williams
40117.20
now 88
15
Winshigher is better
Chase Burns
.00010.80
now 7
12
Gavin Williams
.00010.80
now 8
12

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
BuyChase Burns — buy.conf 0.89
BuyGavin Williams — buy.conf 0.70
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