MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Williams
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Gavin Williams

CLE·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · leans buy skill near league average (3.84); a hold that leans buy — skill sits a hair above league, worth watching.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 3.84WHIP 1.15W 0–0SV 0

Williams is a hold — the ERA-level skill is real but nothing is pulling either way.

His expected ERA is 3.84, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and it has been stepping down across the sample, so the run prevention is real and getting slightly better. Underneath that number sits a wide split: he strikes out 33.2% of batters and swings-and-misses at 16.1%, both well above league, but he also gives up a 46.6% hard-hit rate and 11.4% barrels, both above the league marks of 40.0% and 8.0%. His expected wOBA allowed of .302 sits just under the .315 league average, so the contact damage and the strikeout dominance roughly cancel. His walk rate of 8.2% is right at league. That is a good pitcher on balance, but the profile pulls in two directions at once and nets out to average. Hold. A 3.84 ERA and 1.15 WHIP with no strikeouts is a deep-league hold only — ride the ratio help, not a difference-maker.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %33.2%—+8.2% ▲vs his ~25.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.2%—−2.3% ▼vs his ~10.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.84)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed46.6%
46.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+6.6%vs his norm —
431 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.4%
11.4%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.4%vs his norm —
431 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.302
.302*
lg avg .315 ▼−.013vs his norm —
746 / 200 TBF
xERA3.84
3.84*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.26vs his norm —
746 / 200 TBF
ERA3.76
3.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.34vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
184.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %33.2%
norm33.2%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.2%vs his norm +8.2% ▲
746 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.2%
norm8.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.2%vs his norm −2.3% ▼
746 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.291
.291*
lg avg .295 ▼−.004vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
431 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %16.1%
16.1%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
746 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.6%
33.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.1%vs his norm —
746 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
97.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
2991 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 33.2%→31.5%signal0 K — K% 33.2% (signal) tempered to career ~25.0% → projected 31.5% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 3.84signal3.84 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.84 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 8.2% + contactsignal1.15 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.293 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep0 K ROS, 3.84 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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