MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Williams
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Gavin Williams

CLE·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.med 0.70
ROSK 15ERA 3.78WHIP 1.12W 1–2SV 0

Williams is a buy — his xERA and fastball are both trending the right way.

His expected ERA is 3.78, .32 below the league average of 4.10, and the number has been stepping down, not up, as the season has gone. He strikes out 33.5% of batters against a league rate of 22%, and that gap does not come from nowhere: his fastball is sitting at 97.6 mph, more than three ticks above league, and the velocity has been climbing. He misses bats at 15.9% swinging strikes and gets chases on 33.4% of pitches out of the zone. He also allows hard contact — a 47.4% hard-hit rate and 11.6% barrels — so the surface is not spotless. But the samples are large enough to trust, and the skill is trending into form. Buy. Deep-league stash for 15 K and a 3.78 ERA — add him before the strikeout spike prices him out.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %33.5%—+8.5% ▲vs his ~25.0% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—−2.6% ▼vs his ~10.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.78, 0.32 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed47.4%
47.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+7.4%vs his norm —
396 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.6%vs his norm —
396 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.301
.301*
lg avg .315 ▼−.014vs his norm —
681 / 200 TBF
xERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —
681 / 200 TBF
ERA3.78
3.78*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.32vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
169 / 200 IP
Strikeout %33.5%
norm33.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+11.5%vs his norm +8.5% ▲
681 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm −2.6% ▼
681 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
.287*
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
396 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.9%
15.9%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
681 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.4%
33.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.9%vs his norm —
681 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.6 mph
97.6 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.6 mphvs his norm —
2715 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 33.5%→31.6%signal15 K — K% 33.5% (signal) tempered to career ~25.0% → projected 31.6% over ~14 remaining…
xERA 3.78signal3.78 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.78 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.12 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.12 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep15 K ROS, 3.78 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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