MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Gavin Williams
week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Gavin Williams

CLE·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.39); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 69ERA 4.29WHIP 1.20W 4–9SV 0

Williams is a hold — skill near league average, nothing pulling either way.

His expected ERA sits at 4.39, close to the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that to be reliable. His actual line tracks right with it, so there's no luck story inflating or deflating his results. His strikeout rate is well above league average at 29.1%, and his walk rate is exactly average at 8.0%. But his hard-hit rate allowed is 48.6% — nearly nine points above league — and his barrel rate is 11.9%, almost four points above. Those contact-quality numbers are stable and real, and they explain why the xERA is merely average despite the strikeout upside. The xERA has actually ticked up across his starts, trending away from the early-season promise. There is no edge here. If you own him, stay put; if he's on the wire, this is not the week to chase. Hold. 69 strikeouts and a 4.29 ERA make him a deep-league hold: the strikeouts are real, but the hard contact caps the ceiling.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.1%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~25.0% career norm
  • Walk %8.0%—−2.5% ▼vs his ~10.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.39)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed48.6%
48.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+8.6%vs his norm —
286 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.9%
11.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.9%vs his norm —
286 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.324
.324*
lg avg .315 ▲+.009vs his norm —
460 / 200 TBF
xERA4.39
4.39*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.29vs his norm —
460 / 200 TBF
ERA3.81
3.81*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.29vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
113.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.1%
norm29.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.1%vs his norm +4.1% ▲
460 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.0%
norm8.0%*
lg avg 8.0% 0.0%vs his norm −2.5% ▼
460 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.285
.285*
lg avg .295 ▼−.010vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
286 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
460 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.2%
32.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+3.7%vs his norm —
460 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
97.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
1797 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.1%→27.9%signal69 K — K% 29.1% (signal) tempered to career ~25.0% → projected 27.9% over ~62 remaining…
xERA 4.39signal4.29 ERA — xERA 4.39 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 76 IP.
BB% 8.0% + contactsignal1.20 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.20 skill WHIP.
run support + role4-9 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep69 K ROS, 4.29 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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