Rest of Season Projection
GavinCategoryPayton
114K ←101
4.31ERA →2.48
1.20WHIP ←1.21
7–15W ←3–6
0SV0
Current Season
GavinCategoryPayton
88K ←46
3.07ERA →2.61
1.09WHIP →0.90
8W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gavin Williams
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.43 is 1.11 above the ERA — regression coming
Payton Tolle
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.48, 1.62 below league — production is earned
Gavin Williams: 117 K / 4.30 ERA. Payton Tolle: 104 K / 2.47 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).