Rest of Season Projection
ParkerCategoryPayton
106K ←101
3.32ERA →2.48
1.24WHIP →1.21
6–12W ←3–6
0SV0
Current Season
ParkerCategoryPayton
74K ←46
2.21ERA ←2.61
1.07WHIP →0.90
6W ←2
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Parker Messick
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.271 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.32 is 0.64 above the ERA — regression coming
Payton Tolle
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.48, 1.62 below league — production is earned
Parker Messick: 108 K / 3.38 ERA. Payton Tolle: 104 K / 2.47 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).