MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Payton Tolle
week 25
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Payton Tolle

BOS·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
flipped from HOLD on September 10, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.68, 1.42 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 14ERA 2.68WHIP 1.15W 0–1SV 0

Tolle is a buy — the strikeout skill and xERA are real.

His expected ERA is 2.68, well below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. He strikes out 28.9% of hitters, well above league, and his swinging-strike rate of 15.2% backs it up. His fastball has been gaining velocity across the sample and sits at 96.1 mph. He walks only 6.7%, better than league, so he is not handing back the strikeouts. He gives up weak contact too: a .255 expected wOBA allowed against a .315 league average, with hard-hit and barrel rates both below league and past the point where those stabilize. The expected ERA is stepping down as the season goes. There is no luck here. Buy. A 2.68 ERA with 14 K is a genuine asset — add him now before the rest of your league catches on.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.7%—−1.4% ▼vs his ~8.1% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.9%—+1.2% ▲vs his ~27.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.68, 1.42 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.0%
35.0%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.0%vs his norm —
351 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.6%
6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm —
351 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.255
believable since Jun 10.255*
lg avg .315 ▼−.060vs his norm —
551 / 200 TBF
xERA2.68
2.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.42vs his norm —
551 / 200 TBF
ERA3.15
3.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.95vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
137 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.9%
norm28.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.9%vs his norm +1.2% ▲
551 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.7%
norm6.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.3%vs his norm −1.4% ▼
551 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.287
.287*
lg avg .295 ▼−.008vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
351 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.2%
15.2%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.2%vs his norm —
551 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.2%
36.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.7%vs his norm —
551 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
2095 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.9%→28.6%signal14 K — K% 28.9% (signal) tempered to career ~27.7% → projected 28.6% over ~12 remaining…
xERA 2.68signal2.68 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.68 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.7% + contactsignal1.15 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.291 gives a 1.15 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard14 K ROS, 2.68 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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