MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Payton Tolle
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Payton Tolle

BOS·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from HOLD on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.70, 1.40 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.70WHIP 1.17W 0–0SV 0

Tolle is a buy — the strikeout stuff is real and earned

His expected ERA is 2.70, a full 1.40 runs below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 603 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. Nothing fluky is holding it up. He strikes out 28.4% of batters against a 22.0% league mark, gets swings and misses on 15.4% of pitches, and his fastball sits at 96.1 mph and has been ticking up across the sample. That mix produces weak contact: a .255 expected wOBA allowed and a 6.0% barrel rate allowed, both better than league. His 6.6% walk rate is below league too, so he is not giving back what he earns. This is a pitcher whose results match his stuff, and the expected ERA has been stepping down as the velocity climbs. Buy. A 0 K / 2.70 ERA / 1.17 WHIP line is an asset worth adding now — buy before the strikeouts catch up.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %6.6%—−1.5% ▼vs his ~8.1% career norm
  • Strikeout %28.4%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~27.7% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.70, 1.40 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.5%
34.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.5%vs his norm —
386 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
386 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.255
believable since Jun 10.255*
lg avg .315 ▼−.060vs his norm —
603 / 200 TBF
xERA2.70
2.70*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.40vs his norm —
603 / 200 TBF
ERA3.03
3.03*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.07vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
148.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %28.4%
norm28.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+6.4%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
603 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.6%
norm6.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.4%vs his norm −1.5% ▼
603 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.292
.292*
lg avg .295 ▼−.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
386 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.4%
15.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
603 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.4%
36.4%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.9%vs his norm —
603 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.1 mph
96.1 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.1 mphvs his norm —
2282 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 28.4%→28.2%signal0 K — K% 28.4% (signal) tempered to career ~27.7% → projected 28.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.70signal2.70 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.70 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 6.6% + contactsignal1.17 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.294 gives a 1.17 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.70 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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