MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Payton Tolle
week 17
this weekBUY
last weekHOLD

Payton Tolle

BOS·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from HOLD on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.00, 1.10 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 62ERA 3.00WHIP 1.21W 2–4SV 0

Tolle is a buy — skill metrics are stable and strong.

His xERA is 3.00, a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His xwOBA allowed is .271, also well below league, and his strikeout rate of 25.5% is above average while his walk rate is right at league level. The swstr% and chase% are both above league, pointing to legit stuff. Better yet, his fastball velocity is stepping up across the sample, now averaging 96.0 mph. His contact quality allowed is below league across the board: hard-hit rate 34.4% and barrel rate 7.0%, both better than the league average. He is earning his production. Buy. 62 K and 3.00 ERA make him a standard-league asset — acquire now before the numbers climb.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %25.5%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~27.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.3%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~8.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.00, 1.10 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed34.4%
34.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−5.6%vs his norm —
227 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.0%
7.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
227 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.271
believable since Jun 10.271*
lg avg .315 ▼−.044vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
xERA3.00
3.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.10vs his norm —
341 / 200 TBF
ERA3.11
3.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.99vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
84 / 200 IP
Strikeout %25.5%
norm25.5%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+3.5%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
341 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
341 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.261
.261*
lg avg .295 ▼−.034vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
227 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %14.3%
14.3%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+3.3%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.5%
33.5%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.0%vs his norm —
341 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.0 mph
96.0 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.0 mphvs his norm —
1272 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 25.5%→26.3%signal62 K — K% 25.5% (signal) lifted to career ~27.7% → projected 26.3% over ~54 remaining IP.
xERA 3.00signal3.00 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.00 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.21 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.285 gives a 1.21 skill WHIP.
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard62 K ROS, 3.00 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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