Rest of Season Projection
GavinCategoryMax
114K ←83
4.31ERA →2.54
1.20WHIP ←1.31
7–15W ←4–9
0SV0
Current Season
GavinCategoryMax
88K ←50
3.07ERA ←3.21
1.09WHIP →1.01
8W ←4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Gavin Williams
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.266 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.43 is 1.11 above the ERA — regression coming
Max Fried
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.54, 1.56 below league — production is earned
Williams projects for 115 K / 4.31 ERA vs Fried's 84 K / 2.54 ERA — a 1.77 ERA gap favors Fried. The strikeout edge goes to Williams, but ERAs diverge sharply. Sell Williams; acquire Fried.