Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryMax
83K83
3.01ERA →2.54
1.26WHIP ←1.31
4–8W4–9
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryMax
61K ←50
2.50ERA ←3.21
1.08WHIP →1.01
4W4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Elder
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.243 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.01 is 0.35 above the ERA — regression coming
Max Fried
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.54, 1.56 below league — production is earned
Elder's 3.01 ERA trails Fried's 2.54; both project 83 K. Fried's buy verdict outweighs Elder's sell-high window. The ERA gap is real; the verdicts reflect it.