Rest of Season Projection
BryceCategoryNolan
95K →131
3.18ERA ←3.35
1.29WHIP →1.24
4–9W ←3–7
0SV0
Current Season
BryceCategoryNolan
61K →77
2.50ERA ←4.21
1.08WHIP ←1.12
4W ←3
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Bryce Elder
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 0.68 above the ERA — regression coming
Nolan McLean
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.35, 0.75 below league — production is earned
Bryce Elder: 95 K / 3.18 ERA. Nolan McLean: 131 K / 3.35 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).