week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
————————
Bryce Elder
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Elder is a sell-high — BABIP luck is below the surface.
His ERA is 2.50, but it has company it does not want. The number keeping it down is his BABIP-against: .254, 41 points below league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 208 — that gap is luck, not skill. His expected ERA is 3.18, nearly 0.7 runs higher than the box score suggests, and his xERA has been stepping down across the sample, meaning the skill is not elite. His barrel rate allowed is 3.4%, well below league, and his strikeout and walk rates are near average. The elite ERA is built on a softly low BABIP. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.92
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.254 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 3.18 is 0.68 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.9%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL208 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed3.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−4.6%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL208 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL293 / 200 TBF
xERA3.18
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL293 / 200 TBF
ERA2.50
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.60too early to trust
NOISE72 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL293 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.5%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL293 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.254
lg avg .295 ▼−.041too early to trust
NOISE208 / 800 BIP