MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryce Elder
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Bryce Elder

ATL·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.15); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.13WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Elder is a hold — league average holds up across the board

His xERA lands at 4.15 against a league average of 4.1, and across 633 batters faced that number has had enough time to become trustworthy. Everything around it sends the same message. He gives up a .313 expected wOBA, right at the .315 league mark. Hard-hit rate allowed sits at 39.9% against a 40.0% league average, and his barrel rate of 6.8% is actually a touch better than league. Nothing here needs a luck story in either direction. His strikeout rate of 19.1% is below the 22.0% league average and his fastball sits at 92.4 mph, so he is not overpowering anyone, but he does not beat himself; his walk rate is 7.7%. The one thread worth tracking is his xERA stepping up across the sample, a reminder that the margin here is thin. Hold.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.7%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %19.1%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~19.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.15)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
39.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
459 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
459 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
xERA4.15
4.15*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.05vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
149 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.1%
norm19.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
633 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
633 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
.269*
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
459 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
2245 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.1%→19.1%signal0 K — K% 19.1% (signal) held to career ~19.1% → projected 19.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.15signal4.13 ERA — xERA 4.15 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 72 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.13 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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