week 17
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH
Bryce Elder
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from SELL-HIGH on July 18, 2026
Buy stable xERA 3.79, 0.31 below league, production is earned; add now.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 51ERA 3.79WHIP 1.31W 2–5SV 0
Elder is a buy — stable skill, no luck propping the ERA.
Stable, above-average skill with no luck propping it up. Buy.
VS His Norm
- Walk %7.4%—−0.8% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
- Strikeout %19.8%—+0.7% ▲vs his ~19.1% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.79, 0.31 below league — production is earned
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
314 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed5.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.6%vs his norm —
314 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.303
lg avg .315 ▼−.012vs his norm —
435 / 200 TBF
xERA3.79
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.31vs his norm —
435 / 200 TBF
ERA4.12
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.02vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
102.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.2%vs his norm +0.7% ▲
435 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm −0.8% ▼
435 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.273
lg avg .295 ▼−.022vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
314 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
435 / 60 TBF
Chase %29.4%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —
435 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.5 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.5 mphvs his norm —
1531 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.8%→19.6%signal51 K — K% 19.8% (signal) tempered to career ~19.1% → projected 19.6% over ~60 remaining…
xERA 3.79signal3.79 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.79 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.4% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-5 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdeep51 K ROS, 3.79 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.