MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Bryce Elder
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekSELL-HIGH

Bryce Elder

ATL·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
ON THE 15-DAY IL
flipped from SELL-HIGH
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.11); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 11ERA 4.11WHIP 1.31W 0–1SV 0

Elder is a hold — league average, stable, no luck to unwind.

His expected ERA is 4.11, right on top of the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. His expected wOBA allowed of .313 lands almost exactly on the league mark of .315, so the contact he is giving up is ordinary. Nothing behind the surface is being propped up by luck or dragged down by bad bounces. He strikes out 19.1% of batters, a touch below the league's 22%, and walks 7.7%, which is fine. The batted-ball quality against him is league average across the board. Limited data here — no career baseline or trajectory to lean on, so this call rests on his first stable sample of the season. Hold. Just 11 K and a 4.11 ERA ROS makes Elder a drop in shallow leagues, streaming-only in deep.

VS His Norm

  • Walk %7.7%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~8.2% career norm
  • Strikeout %19.1%—−0.1% ▼vs his ~19.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.11)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.9%
39.9%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm —
459 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.8%
6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
459 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.313
.313*
lg avg .315 ▼−.002vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
xERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —
633 / 200 TBF
ERA4.11
4.11*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.01vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
149 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.1%
norm19.1%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.9%vs his norm −0.1% ▼
633 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm −0.5% ▼
633 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.269
.269*
lg avg .295 ▼−.026vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
459 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.0%
10.0%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−1.0%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.6%
27.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
633 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.4 mph
92.4 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.6 mphvs his norm —
2245 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.1%→19.1%signal11 K — K% 19.1% (signal) held to career ~19.1% → projected 19.1% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 4.11signal4.11 ERA — xERA 4.11 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 72 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.280 gives a 1.31 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop11 K ROS, 4.11 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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