MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 27, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Portrait of Bryce Elder
Bryce Elder
ATL · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 0–0, 4 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 0 (none); Bryce Elder wins 0 (none); 4 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.3
Bryce Elder
92.4
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
12.6%
Bryce Elder
10.0%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
24.0%
Bryce Elder
19.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
33.4%
Bryce Elder
27.6%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
39.9%
Bryce Elder
39.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
9.2%
Bryce Elder
6.8%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.312
Bryce Elder
.313
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
26.77
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
4.11
Bryce Elder
26.77
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.50
4.13
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
.9601.51
now 1.39
1.31
Bryce Elder
.9601.51
now 1.08
1.31

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
4089.60
now 64
0
Bryce Elder
4089.60
now 61
0
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.0005.60
now 3
0–0
Bryce Elder
.0005.60
now 4
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyAaron Nola — hold.conf 0.60
Hold · steadyBryce Elder — hold.conf 0.60
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