MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 28, 2026
Portrait of Aaron Nola
Aaron Nola
PHI · P
Change to
Portrait of Connelly Early
Connelly Early
WSH · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
◀
ERA
WHIP
▶
W
SV n/a

Aaron Nola wins 1 (ERA); Connelly Early wins 1 (WHIP); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Aaron Nola
92.3
Connelly Early
94.0
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
12.6%
Connelly Early
11.0%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
23.8%
Connelly Early
23.5%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Aaron Nola
33.3%
Connelly Early
31.2%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
40.3%
Connelly Early
39.9%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Aaron Nola
9.3%
Connelly Early
10.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Aaron Nola
.314
Connelly Early
.317
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Aaron Nola
26.59
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.55
4.15
Connelly Early
26.59
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.95
4.21
WHIPlower is better
Aaron Nola
1.071.48
now 1.39
1.31
Connelly Early
1.071.48
now 1.16
1.30

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Aaron Nola
4089.60
now 64
0
Connelly Early
4089.60
now 57
0
Winshigher is better
Aaron Nola
.0007
now 3
0–0
Connelly Early
.0007
now 5
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Hold · steadyAaron Nola — hold.conf 0.60
Sell HighConnelly Early — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
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