MLB Daily DeltaWeek 14 · June 26, 2026
Portrait of Connelly Early
Connelly Early
BOS · P
Change to
Portrait of Zebby Matthews
Zebby Matthews
MIN · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Zebby Matthews.

He projects to help you in more roto categories the rest of the way — strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Connelly Early’s box score looks better right now, but it’s built on luck that won’t hold.

Head-to-head
K
ERA
WHIP
W
SV n/a

Zebby Matthews wins 3 categories (K, ERA, WHIP); Connelly Early wins 1 (W); SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Connelly Early
93.9
Zebby Matthews
95.1
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Connelly Early
10.7%
Zebby Matthews
10.7%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Connelly Early
22.5%
Zebby Matthews
19.1%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Connelly Early
30.9%
Zebby Matthews
27.8%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Connelly Early
41.4%
Zebby Matthews
37.5%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Connelly Early
10.8%
Zebby Matthews
11.2%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Connelly Early
.326
Zebby Matthews
.315
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Connelly Early
2.285.30
lg xERA 4.10
now 2.95
4.29
Zebby Matthews
2.285.30
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.63
4.08
WHIPlower is better
Connelly Early
.9101.44
now 1.16
1.32
Zebby Matthews
.9101.44
now 1.03
1.26

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Connelly Early
40101
now 57
77
Zebby Matthews
40101
now 24
79
Winshigher is better
Connelly Early
.00012.20
now 5
49
Zebby Matthews
.00012.20
now 1
24

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
Sell HighConnelly Early — sell high. His value is peaking; good time to trade him.conf 0.95
Hold · steadyZebby Matthews — hold.conf 0.60
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