MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Zebby Matthews
week 25
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL

Zebby Matthews

MIN·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
new call as of September 10, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.56 +0.46 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.69
ROSK 13ERA 4.40WHIP 1.29W 0–1SV 0

Matthews is a sell — the contact allowed is a run worse than league.

His xERA is 4.56, which is .46 above the league average of 4.1, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The contact he allows backs it up: a .328 expected wOBA allowed against a league average of .315, with a barrel rate of 11% versus 8% league. He strikes out 19.9% of batters, below the 22% league average, so he is not missing enough bats to cover the damage on contact. His walk rate of 6.8% is better than league, but that is the only number leaning his way. His expected ERA has been creeping upward across the sample, so the gap is not closing. There is no luck story here — the skill is what the numbers say. Sell. A 4.40 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 13 K ROS makes him a drop — waiver-wire streaming-only, not a stash.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %19.9%—−4.9% ▼vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %6.8%—+0.6% ▲vs his ~6.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.56 +0.46 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed41.6%
believable since May 2541.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
353 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed11.0%
11.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+3.0%vs his norm —
353 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.328
.328*
lg avg .315 ▲+.013vs his norm —
487 / 200 TBF
xERA4.56
4.56*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.46vs his norm —
487 / 200 TBF
ERA4.69
4.69*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.59vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
117 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.9%
norm19.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.1%vs his norm −4.9% ▼
487 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.8%
norm6.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +0.6% ▲
487 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.275
.275*
lg avg .295 ▼−.020vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
353 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.4%
10.4%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.6%vs his norm —
487 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
27.7%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
487 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
1862 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.9%→21.3%signal13 K — K% 19.9% (signal) lifted to career ~24.8% → projected 21.3% over ~12 remaining IP.
xERA 4.56signal4.40 ERA — xERA 4.56 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 23 IP.
BB% 6.8% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.286 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 4.40 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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