MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Zebby Matthews
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekNO CALL

Zebby Matthews

MIN·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
new call as of October 26, 2026
Hold · leans sell skill near league average (4.38); a hold that leans sell — skill sits a hair below league, nothing to chase.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.28WHIP 1.28W 0–0SV 0

Matthews is a hold — his expected ERA sits right at league

His expected ERA is 4.38, against a league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. That is the whole card: a pitcher performing about where the league performs. The underlying rates back it up. He strikes out 21.3% of batters and walks 7.2%, both within a point of league average. His swing-and-miss rate is 10.8% and his chase rate 28.2%, each essentially on the league line. His expected wOBA allowed of .321 is six points above the .315 league mark, and his hard-hit rate allowed of 42.5% is modestly high, which is the one thing worth tracking — his expected ERA has been stepping up across the sample. Nothing here is being propped up or dragged down by luck. He is a league-average arm, and that is what the numbers say. Hold. A 4.28 ERA and 1.28 WHIP with 0 K pitching for nothing but a hold is a drop-tax; waiver-wire streaming-only.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %21.3%—−3.5% ▼vs his ~24.8% career norm
  • Walk %7.2%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~6.2% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.38)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed42.5%
believable since May 2542.5%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+2.5%vs his norm —
386 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.6%
10.6%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.6%vs his norm —
386 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.321
.321*
lg avg .315 ▲+.006vs his norm —
545 / 200 TBF
xERA4.38
4.38*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.28vs his norm —
545 / 200 TBF
ERA4.90
4.90*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.80vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
130.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %21.3%
norm21.3%*
lg avg 22.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm −3.5% ▼
545 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.2%
norm7.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.8%vs his norm +1.0% ▲
545 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.279
.279*
lg avg .295 ▼−.016vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
386 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
10.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
545 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.2%
28.2%*
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.3%vs his norm —
545 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
2117 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 21.3%→22.2%signal0 K — K% 21.3% (signal) lifted to career ~24.8% → projected 22.2% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.38signal4.28 ERA — xERA 4.38 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 23 IP.
BB% 7.2% + contactsignal1.28 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.287 gives a 1.28 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.28 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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