week 17
this weekSELL
last weekNO CALL
Zebby Matthews
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
new call as of July 18, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.58 +0.48 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.69 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 57ERA 4.41WHIP 1.29W 1–3SV 0
Matthews is a sell — the skills undercut the line with no luck to blame.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %19.6%—−5.2% ▼vs his ~24.8% career norm
- Walk %6.5%—+0.3% ▲vs his ~6.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.58 +0.48 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed38.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm —
201 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed12.4%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
201 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.330
lg avg .315 ▲+.015vs his norm —
275 / 200 TBF
xERA4.58
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.48vs his norm —
275 / 200 TBF
ERA4.57
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.47vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
67 / 200 IP
Strikeout %19.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−2.4%vs his norm −5.2% ▼
275 / 70 TBF
Walk %6.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−1.5%vs his norm +0.3% ▲
275 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.267
lg avg .295 ▼−.028vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
201 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.8%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm —
275 / 60 TBF
Chase %27.7%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.8%vs his norm —
275 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.0 mphvs his norm —
1023 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 19.6%→21.8%signal57 K — K% 19.6% (signal) lifted to career ~24.8% → projected 21.8% over ~50 remaining IP.
xERA 4.58signal4.41 ERA — xERA 4.58 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 23 IP.
BB% 6.5% + contactsignal1.29 WHIP — a 6% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.288 gives a 1.29 skill WHIP.
run support + role1-3 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop57 K ROS, 4.41 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.