Rest of Season Projection
AaronCategoryZebby
101K ←90
4.26ERA →4.09
1.33WHIP →1.30
3–6W ←2–5
0SV0
Current Season
AaronCategoryZebby
64K ←24
5.55ERA →4.63
1.39WHIP →1.03
3W ←1
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Aaron Nola
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.342 elevated and unstable — the 5.86 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.35 is +0.25 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Zebby Matthews
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.76)
Aaron Nola: 101 K / 4.26 ERA. Zebby Matthews: 90 K / 4.09 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).