MLB Daily DeltaWeek 25 · September 10, 2026
Engraved portrait of Aaron Nola
week 25
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Aaron Nola

PHI·P
data as of September 10, 2026·week 25
Hold · steady skill near league average (3.95); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 13ERA 3.95WHIP 1.31W 0–1SV 0

Nola is a hold — league-average skill, stable across the board.

His expected ERA is 3.95, a hair under the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. Nothing underneath it is unstable. His expected wOBA allowed is .307, just ahead of the .315 league mark. His strikeout rate is 24.4%, a bit above league, and his walk rate is 7.8%, a bit below it — both reliable at this sample. The one wrinkle is his fastball, which sits at 92.3 mph against a 94.0 league average, and his xERA has been stepping down across the sample. But his contact quality allowed is nearly league average, so there is no collapse here. The skill is what the surface says it is. Hold. 13 K and a 3.95 ERA the rest of the way is streaming-only filler, a drop-tax on your roster — cut him.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %24.4%—−2.2% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.8%—+1.4% ▲vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (3.95)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
40.4%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%vs his norm —
448 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.2%
9.2%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.2%vs his norm —
448 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.307
.307*
lg avg .315 ▼−.008vs his norm —
663 / 200 TBF
xERA3.95
3.95*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.15vs his norm —
663 / 200 TBF
ERA4.76
4.76*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.66vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
155 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
norm24.4%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%vs his norm −2.2% ▼
663 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.8%
norm7.8%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.2%vs his norm +1.4% ▲
663 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.309
.309*
lg avg .295 ▲+.014vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
448 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.7%
12.7%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm —
663 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.9%
32.9%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.4%vs his norm —
663 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
2655 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 24.4%→24.9%signal13 K — K% 24.4% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 24.9% over ~13 remaining IP.
xERA 3.95signal3.95 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 3.95 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.8% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.303 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-1 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop13 K ROS, 3.95 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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