MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Aaron Nola
week 31
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD

Aaron Nola

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
Hold · steady skill near league average (4.18); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60
ROSK 0ERA 4.15WHIP 1.31W 0–0SV 0

Nola is a hold — league average across the board, nothing unstable

His expected ERA is 4.18, a hair above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced 744 batters — well past the point where that number becomes reliable. His expected wOBA allowed is .314 against a .315 league average, so the contact he gives up is exactly middle of the road. The strikeout and walk rates back it up: 23.8% strikeouts, 7.9% walks, both close to league. There is one wrinkle worth naming: his xERA has been stepping up across the sample, so the recent run prevention is a touch worse than the full-season line. That is a drift to watch, not a reason to move. Nothing here is luck-driven, so there is no gap to exploit in either direction. He is what the numbers say he is. Hold. A 0 K / 4.15 ERA / 1.31 WHIP line is waiver-wire filler — this is a drop-tier drag, so cut him and stream the slot.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.8%—−2.8% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.9%—+1.5% ▲vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALskill near league average (4.18)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.3%
40.3%*
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.3%vs his norm —
506 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed9.3%
9.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.3%vs his norm —
506 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.314
.314*
lg avg .315 ▼−.001vs his norm —
744 / 200 TBF
xERA4.18
4.18*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.08vs his norm —
744 / 200 TBF
ERA4.67
4.67*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.57vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
175.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.8%
norm23.8%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.8%vs his norm −2.8% ▼
744 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.9%
norm7.9%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%vs his norm +1.5% ▲
744 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.300
.300*
lg avg .295 ▲+.005vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
506 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
12.6%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
744 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.3%
33.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.8%vs his norm —
744 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.3 mph
92.3 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.7 mphvs his norm —
2946 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.8%→24.4%signal0 K — K% 23.8% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 24.4% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.18signal4.15 ERA — xERA 4.18 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 62 IP.
BB% 7.9% + contactsignal1.31 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.298 gives a 1.32 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.15 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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