MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of Aaron Nola
week 17
this weekBUY-LOW
last weekBUY-LOW

Aaron Nola

PHI·P
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
Buy Low luck-free xERA 4.16 is right around league, a usable arm the ERA is hiding; fastball velocity stable and above league, the arm is fine — BABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable, bloating the ERA; buy the player, not the number.high 0.90
ROSK 60ERA 4.14WHIP 1.32W 2–4SV 0

Nola is a buy-low — ERA is lying, the arm is fine.

Nola's ERA sits at 5.68, but his expected ERA is 4.16 — essentially a skill right around league average. The gap is his BABIP-against, which is .322, 27 points above league average. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable, and he has 308. That gap is luck, not a signal about his stuff. His strikeout rate is above league, his walk rate is below, and his chase rate is well above league. The fastball velocity has ticked down slightly, but remains stable. The barrel rate allowed is a tick high, but the overall skill set is that of a usable arm that the ERA is making look much worse. The ERA is the noise; the xERA is the truth. Buy low. 60 K and a 4.14 ERA make him a streaming-only play while the dipping surface holds.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %23.9%—−2.7% ▼vs his ~26.6% career norm
  • Walk %7.7%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~6.4% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALluck-free xERA 4.16 is right around league — a usable arm the ERA is hiding
  • babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.322 elevated and unstable — bloating the ERA
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALfastball velocity stable and above league — the arm is fine
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed39.6%
39.6%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−0.4%vs his norm —
308 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed10.1%
10.1%*
lg avg 8.0% ▲+2.1%vs his norm —
308 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.316
.316*
lg avg .315 ▲+.001vs his norm —
452 / 200 TBF
xERA4.16
4.16*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.06vs his norm —
452 / 200 TBF
ERA5.68
5.68*
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.58vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
103 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.9%
norm23.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm −2.7% ▼
452 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.7%
norm7.7%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.3%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
452 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.322
.322*
lg avg .295 ▲+.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
308 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.8%
12.8%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.9%vs his norm —
452 / 60 TBF
Chase %32.6%
32.6%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+4.1%vs his norm —
452 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo92.2 mph
92.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▼−1.8 mphvs his norm —
1797 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.9%→24.7%signal60 K — K% 23.9% (signal) lifted to career ~26.6% → projected 24.7% over ~56 remaining IP.
xERA 4.16signal4.14 ERA — xERA 4.16 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 62 IP.
BB% 7.7% + contactsignal1.32 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.305 gives a 1.34 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role2-4 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop60 K ROS, 4.14 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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