week 10
this weekSELL
last week—
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Aaron Nola
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Nola is a sell — his skill is below league with no luck excuse.
His expected ERA is 4.46, .36 above the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that number to be reliable. The trend is not encouraging: his xERA has been stepping up across the sample. His actual ERA is near xERA, so there is no bad-luck story holding the ERA down. His BABIP-against is near league average, confirming the line reflects his true run prevention. His strikeout rate is just above league average at 22.9%, but his walk rate is solid. The problem is contact quality: he is allowing a barrel rate of 8.8% and a hard-hit rate of 40.4%, both slightly above league average. He is what the numbers say. Sell.
Sell
med0.66
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.46 +0.36 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed40.4%
lg avg 40.0% ▲+0.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL171 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.8%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.8%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL171 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.332
lg avg .315 ▲+.017trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL245 / 200 TBF
xERA4.46
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.36trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL245 / 200 TBF
ERA5.72
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.62too early to trust
NOISE56.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %22.9%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+0.9%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL245 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL245 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.338
lg avg .295 ▲+.043too early to trust
NOISE171 / 800 BIP