PHI

96.8 mph heat, 30.3% Ks, 2.83 xERA — nothing fluky here.

100.5 mph heater, 35.6% Ks, 4.2% walks — video game closer.

97 mph fastball, 31.9% K rate, 2.85 xERA — missing bats

xERA 2.88 with a 29.9% K rate backs the ace.

27% Ks, 5.3% walks, 3.39 xERA — command backs the run prevention.

ERA 3.48 matches xERA 3.47 — zero luck baked in

96.8 mph heat; 4.91 ERA masks a 3.57 xERA

xwOBA .379 with barrel rate 10.3% backs the bat.

96 mph heater with a 26.5% K rate and 3.78 xERA.

49% hard-hit, 15.5% barrels bury the 31% strikeout risk.

xwOBA .330 beats contact; 16.4% K rate carries it

5.88 ERA hides a 4.27 xERA; .360 BABIP won't hold

5.86 ERA over 4.12 xERA; .380 BABIP-against won't hold

BABIP-against .389 against a .295 league norm screams buy-low.

BABIP-against .349 inflates a 4.01 xERA; 90.7 mph is the real cap.

.239 BABIP with 40% hard-hit — quietly unlucky catcher

ERA 2.84 rides .265 BABIP; xERA sits 3.63.

.333 BABIP inflates a .335 wOBA over .299 xwOBA

5.40 ERA but 4.42 xERA — just under a run of noise.

2% barrels and 87 mph exit velo won't carry .284 xwOBA

31.9% strikeouts with 88.9 mph exit velo can't hold

32% strikeout rate smothers 92 mph exit velo.

xwOBA .293 yet barrel rate only 6% — contact thinning