MLB Daily DeltaWeek 17 · July 18, 2026
Engraved portrait of J.T. Realmuto
260 PA · week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekBUY-LOW

J.T. Realmuto

data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
flipped from BUY-LOW on July 18, 2026
Hold · steady skill near league average (0.313); hold steady — skill tracks near league, no edge either way.med 0.60 (narrative held for review)
ROSHR 3AVG .237R 13RBI 11SB 1

Realmuto is a hold — league-average skill, no luck story.

ROS projects HR 2 YTD → 3 ROS, AVG .220 YTD → .237 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.

VS His Norm

  • Barrel %5.0%−5.1%vs his ~10.1% career norm

Drivers

  • xwobaSIGNALskill near league average (0.313)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo89.1 mph
89.1 mph*
lg avg 89.0 mph +0.1 mphvs his norm —
180 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %37.8%
37.8%*
lg avg 40.0% −2.2%vs his norm —
180 / 50 BBE
Barrel %5.0%
norm5.0%*
lg avg 8.0% −3.0%vs his norm −5.1%
180 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.313
believable since Jun 9.313*
lg avg .315 −.002vs his norm —
260 / 160 PA
wOBA.284
.284*
lg avg .315 −.031vs his norm —
260 / 200 PA
Strikeout %20.4%
20.4%*
lg avg 22.0% −1.6%vs his norm —
260 / 60 PA
Walk %7.3%
7.3%*
lg avg 8.5% −1.2%vs his norm —
260 / 120 PA
BABIP.237
norm.237*
lg avg .295 −.058vs his norm −.081 BABIP is below his ~.318 normexpect it to rise.
180 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %11.6%
11.6%*
lg avg 11.0% +0.6%vs his norm —
260 / 50 PA
Chase %31.9%
31.9%*
lg avg 28.5% +3.4%vs his norm —
260 / 50 PA

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 5.0%→7.7%signal3 HR — Barrel% 5.0% (signal) lifted to career ~10.1% → projected 7.7%.
BABIP 0.237→0.274 regressednoise.237 AVG — BABIP 0.237 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.285 (xBA 0.246) → 0.274.
on-base + lineup13 R — his run rate over ~167 projected PA.
slugging + lineup11 RBI — his RBI rate over ~167 projected PA.
run rate / role1 SB — his steal rate (1 in 39 G) over ~167 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

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