week 27
this weekSELL
last weekHOLD
Andrew Painter
data as of September 27, 2026·week 27
flipped from HOLD on September 27, 2026
Sell stable xERA 4.41 +0.31 vs league with no luck excuse; move on.med 0.64 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 0ERA 4.30WHIP 1.37W 0–0SV 0
Painter is a sell — the skill is below league, no luck involved.
Stable skill below league and not unlucky. Sell.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %20.8%—+2.6% ▲vs his ~18.2% career norm
- Walk %8.5%—+1.3% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 4.41 +0.31 vs league with no luck excuse
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.1%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.9%vs his norm —
385 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed8.1%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.1%vs his norm —
385 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.322
lg avg .315 ▲+.007vs his norm —
552 / 200 TBF
xERA4.41
lg avg 4.10 ▲+0.31vs his norm —
552 / 200 TBF
ERA5.40
lg avg 4.10 ▲+1.30vs his norm —ERA is above the ~4.10 league average — expect it to fall.
126.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %20.8%
lg avg 22.0% ▼−1.2%vs his norm +2.6% ▲
552 / 70 TBF
Walk %8.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.5%vs his norm +1.3% ▲
552 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.308
lg avg .295 ▲+.013vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
385 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %12.6%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm —
552 / 60 TBF
Chase %33.8%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+5.3%vs his norm —
552 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo96.6 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+2.6 mphvs his norm —
2126 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 20.8%→20.1%signal0 K — K% 20.8% (signal) tempered to career ~18.2% → projected 20.1% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 4.41signal4.30 ERA — xERA 4.41 (signal) blended 65% skill / 35% league 4.10 at 53 IP.
BB% 8.5% + contactsignal1.37 WHIP — a 8% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.301 gives a 1.41 skill WHIP, blended 65…
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterdrop0 K ROS, 4.30 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.