Andrew Painter
Painter is a hold — the ERA lies, but so does the buy case.
His 7.06 ERA is inflated by a .347 BABIP-against, 52 points above league, and BABIP-against is still noise at 219 balls in play. That's why the surface looks worse than the truth. But the truth is not flattering either: his expected ERA is 5.21, more than a run above league average, and it has been stepping up across the sample. His expected wOBA allowed is .348, 33 points high, and his strikeout rate is 17.7%, below league, with a walk rate right at league. He does limit hard contact — 35.2% hard-hit allowed, under league — and his fastball sits at 96.5 mph, so there is something to like. That something just does not add up to a buy. This is a fade-the-panic, don't-chase call. Hold. Hold at 4.82 ERA and 35 K — a drop-tier streamer at best, not a must-add. No action until the BABIP normalizes.
VS His Norm
- Walk %8.0%—+0.8% ▲vs his ~7.2% career norm
- Strikeout %17.7%—−0.5% ▼vs his ~18.2% career norm
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.347 elevated and unstable — the 7.06 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 5.21 is +1.11 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.