MLB Daily DeltaWeek 27 · September 28, 2026
Portrait of Andrew Painter
Andrew Painter
PHI · P
Change to
Portrait of Steven Matz
Steven Matz
TB · P
Change to
Who's more valuable, rest of season

Too close to call.

They split your categories 1–1, 2 even. Take whoever fills a bigger need.

Head-to-head
K
◀
ERA
WHIP
▶
W
SV n/a

Andrew Painter wins 1 (ERA); Steven Matz wins 1 (WHIP); 2 even; SV n/a.

04

Under the hood

Underlying skill — each value vs league avg
Fastball Velolg 94.0 · higher = better
Andrew Painter
96.6
Steven Matz
93.6
Swinging-Strike %lg 11.0% · higher = better
Andrew Painter
12.6%
Steven Matz
10.0%
Strikeout %lg 22.0% · higher = better
Andrew Painter
20.8%
Steven Matz
17.8%
Chase %lg 28.5% · higher = better
Andrew Painter
33.8%
Steven Matz
29.1%
Hard-Hit % Allowedlg 40.0% · lower = better
Andrew Painter
35.1%
Steven Matz
35.4%
Barrel % Allowedlg 8.0% · lower = better
Andrew Painter
8.1%
Steven Matz
10.6%
xwOBA Allowedlg .315 · lower = better
Andrew Painter
.322
Steven Matz
.342
stabilized — trust it · small sample yet · dashed = league avg · right = better
05

The tape

Rest-of-season projection · bold = leads
rest-of-season projection current season projection range
Rate · earned-run quality
ERAlower is better
Andrew Painter
3.746.31
lg xERA 4.10
now 5.74
4.31
Steven Matz
3.746.31
lg xERA 4.10
now 4.67
4.72
WHIPlower is better
Andrew Painter
1.131.63
now 1.52
1.37
Steven Matz
1.131.63
now 1.24
1.31

Volume · rest of season
Strikeoutshigher is better
Andrew Painter
4060.20
now 43
0
Steven Matz
4060.20
now 35
0
Winshigher is better
Andrew Painter
.0005.60
now 1
0–0
Steven Matz
.0005.60
now 4
0–0

SV — not applicable. Both pitch out of the rotation.

If you already own them — trade angle
SellAndrew Painter — sell.conf 0.65
SellSteven Matz — sell.conf 0.83
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