Rest of Season Projection
AndrewCategorySteven
71K →72
4.59ERA ←5.45
1.40WHIP →1.39
1–2W →5–10
0SV0
Current Season
AndrewCategorySteven
43K ←35
5.74ERA →4.67
1.52WHIP →1.24
1W →4
0SV0
What Each Player's System Trusts
Andrew Painter
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.333 elevated and unstable — the 6.43 ERA overstates the damage
- xeraSIGNALbut luck-free xERA 4.85 is +0.75 vs league — the level it regresses to is below average, not a buy
Steven Matz
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 6.17 +2.07 vs league with no luck excuse
Andrew Painter: 71 K / 4.59 ERA. Steven Matz: 72 K / 5.45 ERA. Different roster decisions — see individual verdicts.
Bare-stats comparison (narrative review pending).