week 17
this weekHOLD
last weekHOLD
Brad Keller
data as of July 18, 2026·week 17
ON THE 15-DAY IL
Hold · wait & see skill near league average (3.31); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSK 21ERA 3.68WHIP 1.25W 1–2SV 2–3
Keller is a hold — league-average skill, nothing to chase.
ROS projects K 28 YTD → 21 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %23.7%—+5.5% ▲vs his ~18.2% career norm
Drivers
- xeraNOISEskill near league average (3.31)
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed31.8%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−8.2%vs his norm —
88 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed4.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−3.5%vs his norm —
88 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031vs his norm —xwOBA Allowed is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 200 TBF
xERA3.31
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.79vs his norm —xERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
135 / 200 TBF
ERA4.02
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.08vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
31.3 / 200 IP
Strikeout %23.7%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+1.7%vs his norm +5.5% ▲
135 / 70 TBF
Walk %9.6%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+1.6%vs his norm −0.3% ▼Walk % is below his ~9.9% norm — expect it to rise.
135 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.298
lg avg .295 ▲+.003vs his norm —BABIP Against is above the ~.295 league average — expect it to fall.
88 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %10.1%
lg avg 11.0% ▼−0.9%vs his norm —
135 / 60 TBF
Chase %28.0%
lg avg 28.5% ▼−0.5%vs his norm —
135 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo97.0 mph
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+3.0 mphvs his norm —
533 / 50 PITCHES
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
K% 23.7%→20.4%signal21 K — K% 23.7% (signal) tempered to career ~18.2% → projected 20.4% over ~21 remaining…
xERA 3.31noise3.68 ERA — xERA 3.31 (noise) blended 4% skill / 96% league 3.70 at 25 IP.
BB% 9.6% + contactnoise1.25 WHIP — a 10% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.295 gives a 1.38 skill WHIP, blended 4…
run support + role1-2 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (closer)2-3 SV — role: closer.
rosterdeep6 SV, 3.68 ERA
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.