MLB Daily DeltaWeek 31 · October 26, 2026
Engraved portrait of Zack Wheeler
week 31
this weekBUY
last weekSELL-HIGH

Zack Wheeler

PHI·P
data as of October 26, 2026·week 31
flipped from SELL-HIGH on October 26, 2026
Buy stable xERA 2.88, 1.22 below league, production is earned; velocity stable and above league; add now.high 0.92
ROSK 0ERA 2.88WHIP 1.13W 0–0SV 0

Wheeler is a buy — the strikeouts and weak contact are both stable

His expected ERA is 2.88, more than a full run below the league average of 4.10, and he has faced enough batters for that to be reliable. The skill underneath it is real on both ends: he strikes out 29.9% of hitters against a league rate of 22.0%, and his expected wOBA allowed of .263 is 52 points below league. The contact quality says the same thing — 35.2% hard-hit allowed against a 40.0% league mark, 6.0% barrels against 8.0%. His 95.2 mph fastball is a tick above league and has been climbing, and his xERA has been stepping down as the sample grows. He is missing bats and suppressing contact, and neither number leans on luck. That is what a genuine front-line pitcher looks like in the data. Buy. A 2.88 ERA and 1.13 WHIP ROS make him a rotation asset — acquire before the market corrects.

VS His Norm

  • Strikeout %29.9%—+4.2% ▲vs his ~25.7% career norm
  • Walk %7.3%—+0.4% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm

Drivers

  • xeraSIGNALstable xERA 2.88, 1.22 below league — production is earned
  • p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed35.2%
35.2%*
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.8%vs his norm —
401 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed6.0%
6.0%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.0%vs his norm —
401 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.263
believable since Jun 10.263*
lg avg .315 ▼−.052vs his norm —
645 / 200 TBF
xERA2.88
2.88*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.22vs his norm —
645 / 200 TBF
ERA3.00
3.00*
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.10vs his norm —ERA is below the ~4.10 league average — expect it to rise.
162 / 200 IP
Strikeout %29.9%
norm29.9%*
lg avg 22.0% ▲+7.9%vs his norm +4.2% ▲
645 / 70 TBF
Walk %7.3%
norm7.3%*
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.7%vs his norm +0.4% ▲
645 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.268
.268*
lg avg .295 ▼−.027vs his norm —BABIP Against is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
401 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %15.5%
15.5%*
lg avg 11.0% ▲+4.5%vs his norm —
645 / 60 TBF
Chase %36.3%
36.3%*
lg avg 28.5% ▲+7.8%vs his norm —
645 / 60 TBF
Fastball Velo95.2 mph
95.2 mph*
lg avg 94.0 mph ▲+1.2 mphvs his norm —
2649 / 50 PITCHES

5×5 ROS Outlook

rest of season

Where each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.

statytdrosdriverconf
K% 29.9%→28.9%signal0 K — K% 29.9% (signal) tempered to career ~25.7% → projected 28.9% over ~0 remaining IP.
xERA 2.88signal2.88 ERA — regresses up toward xERA 2.88 (signal): elite skill, but overperforming even…
BB% 7.3% + contactsignal1.13 WHIP — a 7% walk rate plus BABIP-against 0.281 gives a 1.13 skill WHIP.
run support + role0-0 W — wins ride run support and how deep he goes, not just skill.
role (starter)0 SV — role: starter, not in the save mix.
rosterstandard0 K ROS, 2.88 ERA

Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.

Tweet
Compare with

Comparisons

head-to-head matchups