Zack Wheeler
Wheeler is a buy — the strikeout stuff and expected ERA are both real.
His expected ERA is 3.03 — more than a full run better than the league average of 4.10 — and it has been stepping down across the sample. Nothing about that number is being propped up by luck. He strikes out 29.8% of batters against a league rate of 22%, and his swinging-strike rate of 15.4% is well above average, which is what a real strikeout profile looks like. His fastball is averaging 95.2 mph, up across the year, and he is getting chases on 35.7% of pitches outside the zone. Hard-hit rate allowed at 35% and barrel rate at 6.2% are both below league. He has faced 547 batters, past the point where these numbers become reliable. The stuff is carrying the results, and the results are earned. Buy. With 11 K and a 3.03 ERA ROS, he's an asset worth acquiring now — earned skills, no luck propping up the line.
VS His Norm
- Strikeout %29.8%—+4.1% ▲vs his ~25.7% career norm
- Walk %7.9%—+1.0% ▲vs his ~6.9% career norm
Drivers
- xeraSIGNALstable xERA 3.03, 1.07 below league — production is earned
- p_fastball_veloSIGNALvelocity stable and above league
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.