week 10
this weekSELL-HIGH
last weekSELL-HIGH
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Zack Wheeler
data as of June 3, 2026·week 10
Wheeler is a sell-high — ERA is BABIP noise, not skill.
His ERA sits at 2.27, but the underlying numbers point to regression. The key driver is a .211 BABIP-against — 84 points below the league average of .295. BABIP-against needs around 800 balls in play to be reliable; he has 114, so that gap is luck, not skill. Strip out the sequencing and his expected ERA climbs to 3.18 — nearly a full run higher. His contact quality is actually around league average: hard-hit rate allowed is 37.7% (league 40.0%) and barrel rate is 7.9% (league 8.0%). He strikes out 24.4% of batters, above average, but there is no elite suppressed-contact story here to sustain the ERA when the BABIP normalizes. The market is still pricing the box score line. Sell high.
Sell High
high0.91
Drivers
- babip_againstNOISEBABIP-against 0.211 suppressed and unstable — flattering the ERA
- xeraNOISEluck-free xERA 3.18 is 0.91 above the ERA — regression coming
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Hard-Hit % Allowed37.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−2.3%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL114 / 50 BBE
Barrel % Allowed7.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−0.1%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL114 / 60 BBE
xwOBA Allowed.284
lg avg .315 ▼−.031too early to trust
NOISE164 / 200 TBF
xERA3.18
lg avg 4.10 ▼−0.92too early to trust
NOISE164 / 200 TBF
ERA2.27
lg avg 4.10 ▼−1.83too early to trust
NOISE43.7 / 200 IP
Strikeout %24.4%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+2.4%trustworthy at this sample
SIGNAL164 / 70 TBF
Walk %5.5%
lg avg 8.0% ▼−2.5%too early to trust
NOISE164 / 170 TBF
BABIP Against.211
lg avg .295 ▼−.084too early to trust
NOISE114 / 800 BIP