89 PA · week 27
this weekHOLD
last week—
Gabriel Rincones Jr.
data as of September 30, 2026·week 27
Hold · wait & see strikeout rate 33% is stable and high, caps the floor — skill near league average (0.205); hold and wait — key skill metric not yet stable enough to call.med 0.50 (narrative held for review)
ROSAVG .000HR 0R 0RBI 0SB 0
Rincones is a hold — league average with a strikeout problem.
ROS projects AVG .000 YTD → .000 ROS. Stable, rosterable; no clear edge to exploit either way.
Drivers
- xwobaNOISEskill near league average (0.205)
- k_pctSIGNALstrikeout rate 33% is stable and high — caps the floor
metric · nowrolling trajectoryvs. leaguestabilized?
Avg Exit Velo90.1 mph
lg avg 89.0 mph ▲+1.1 mphvs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Hard-Hit %35.7%
lg avg 40.0% ▼−4.3%vs his norm —
56 / 50 BBE
Barrel %8.9%
lg avg 8.0% ▲+0.9%vs his norm —Barrel % is above the ~8.0% league average — expect it to fall.
56 / 60 BBE
xwOBA.205
lg avg .315 ▼−.110vs his norm —xwOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 160 PA
wOBA.215
lg avg .315 ▼−.100vs his norm —wOBA is below the ~.315 league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 200 PA
Strikeout %32.6%
lg avg 22.0% ▲+10.6%vs his norm —
89 / 60 PA
Walk %2.2%
lg avg 8.5% ▼−6.3%vs his norm —Walk % is below the ~8.5% league average — expect it to rise.
89 / 120 PA
BABIP.222
lg avg .295 ▼−.073vs his norm —BABIP is below the ~.295 league average — expect it to rise.
56 / 800 BIP
Swinging-Strike %17.4%
lg avg 11.0% ▲+6.5%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
Chase %46.6%
lg avg 28.5% ▲+18.1%vs his norm —
89 / 50 PA
5×5 ROS Outlook
rest of seasonWhere each category goes the rest of the way, and the skill that drives it. Tap a row to expand the full derivation.
statytdrosdriverconf
Barrel% 8.9%→8.7%noise0 HR — Barrel% 8.9% (noise) tempered to league ~8.0% → projected 8.7%.
BABIP 0.222→0.369 regressednoise.000 AVG — BABIP 0.222 is noise, regressed toward xBA-implied 0.380 (xBA 0.150) → 0.369.
on-base + lineup0 R — his run rate over ~0 projected PA.
slugging + lineup0 RBI — his RBI rate over ~0 projected PA.
run rate / role0 SB — his steal rate (0 in 1 G) over ~0 projected PA.
rosterdroprotational counting only
Every projection traces to a sabermetric input. The driver and confidence shown per row are always visible; tap any row to expand the full derivation.